Desert Strike is one of three horses in this race which likes to lead or can lead, so the early pace will most likely be quite fast. It's third favourite but fourth top rated and I doubt it can win. Ask The Guru can be held up or track the leaders but comes out last in my figures. Roy's Legacy is another horse to try to lead and third on my figures so I'm doubtful this joint favourite can win. Billy Red is likely to try and lead and as its second on my figures it might be hard to catch if hitting the front. Pharoh Jake is a versatile
horse and has the best figures on my ratings at the weights.
4:20 Southwell - Masai Moon has won its last two races and once again it comes out top on my figures. Pick A Little likes to track the leaders and comes out joint second top rated. Indian Affair is one of four possible leaders but can also track the leaders if need be. This horse has no form at this course but has produced a time at Wolverhampton that would put it in second position on my figures. Only Ten Per Cent can lead or track the leaders and is the other joint second top rated. Greenhead High like to lead when possible but only produces slow times over course and distance so doubt it will be good enough here.It won last time out at Wolverhampton over this distance and as short as 7/2, which is poor value according to my thinking and would be a lay bet. Monnoyer can either lead or track the leaders but its times have been poor over course and distance. Hab Reeh is either held up or tracks the leaders but has poor recent form plus slow times at course and distance. Ideally needs a faster surface.
SUMMARY: 4:30 Lingfield - I'd only recommend a small bet on Pharoh Jake at 4/1. The front runners may take each other on and burn themselves out leaving the race to a hold-up type. 4.20 Southwell - I've tipped Masai Moon the last twice when it won and should win again. It's fair odds at 11/4 (E.R.I.C.)