Sunday, 18 May 2014

4:20 Redcar Racing Tip (19th May) HAPPY 10TH BIRTHDAY RACING UK HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-90)

JIROFT usually likes to lead and I think it's now dropped to a race where it's the top rated and got a good claiming jockey, Robert Tart, who takes an extra three pounds of its weight it could prove superior and is nicely drawn in stall three.

Stone Of Folca can lead or track the leaders but isn't drawn the best in stall nine but is my second top rated but may need the run after having 254 days off. Singuer usually tracks the pace but has only produced slow times and may prefer a slower surface.
Tennessee Wildcat may prefer a slower surface with its either hold up or track leaders style of running. Another Wise Kid also is either held up or tracks the pace and comes out third in my figures so could/should make the frame at least but isn't much value at 7/2. Jack Luey usually tracks the leaders but may need the run after 206 days off plus its another that may prefer some cut in the ground. Foxy Music is one that can lead or at least chase the pace but may find this going too fast. Bondi Beach Boy may need the run after 241 days off and only produced slow times but can lead or track the pace. Avon Breeze is either held up or tracks the pace but its times are slow and the going may be too fast. Keep it Dark is another potential leader and is drawn in stall one but may prefer a slower surface. Corncockle is only a three year old and doubt it will be involved here as it may be too short a trip and the going may be too fast. 

4:30 Southwell -  Only five runners and I'm going out on a limb here. Whether GUISHAN is really up to this class of race is a matter for debate but it is the only known front runner in the field and if it can get an easy, uncontested, lead it might pinch the race from the front and I don't think it should be 12/1 in a five-runner race. 

6:05 Windsor - Hamoody is versatile with its style of running but may find this trip too far on good to firm going. KUANYAO is the likely leader in this race and has the fastest time and if given an easy time at the front may be uncatchable. New Leyf is either held up or tracks the leaders and is my second top rated. Noverre To Go likes to track the early pace but has only produced slow times on the going and may prefer a slower surface. Diamonds A Dancing has so far only shown poor form and I can't see why it should come to life here. Fleeting Indian likes to track the leaders but would prefer another furlong to show its best. Ocean Legend also tracks the leaders and needs a sixth furlong to show its best. Scruffy Tramp is only a three year old and maybe not mature enough yet and this trip may be too short even with its track leaders or hold up style. Medals Of Valour may need the run may find the trip too short.

SUMMARY: 4:20 Redcar - I would be having an each way bet on JIROFT at 14/1 hoping it can get the lead and hold on at the finish. 4:30 Southwell - A small win bet at 12/1 on GUISHAN just hoping it is underestimated by the others and can pinch the race from the front. 6:05 Windsor - KUANYAO should be in the firing line from the off. As it's a claiming race there's no betting put yet on Oddschecker but it's fourth down on their list so hopefully it will be a decent price, if it's big enough back it each way.

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