Monday, 11 August 2014

6:35 Lingfield Racing Tips (12th August) 32RED HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-80)

O'Gorman hasn't got any form over this course and distance but has got a fast time at the distance at Kempton so can't be written off as a no-hoper. Red Aggressor can be held up or track the pace-setters but is only seventh on my ratings so I doubt it can win here. Dominate is one of only three horses in the field known to lead before but has no form on the all-weather so there's no telling what it will achieve but it has got some good form on turf and would be a danger if taking to the surface. Arctic Lynx is either held up or tracks the leaders and its times put it third on my figures so could make the frame if running to its best. Marjong has no form at the course and distance. Also, its times at Kempton haven't been great so I can't see any reason why it should win here. Al's Memory is another that is either held up or tracks the leaders but its best time only makes it fifth top so it would need others to under perform for it to make the frame let alone win. Spellmaker can be held up or can track the early pace and comes out fourth but needs some luck to make the frame here. Dissent is quite versatile in its running style and has been known to lead before and as it comes out second on my figures it would be hard to catch if it got to the front. Dishy Guru comes out sixth on my ratings and can be held up or track the leaders and needs help to make the frame. Saffire Song usually likes to chase the leaders without trying to lead too early but it has no form over the course and distance but it's only a three year old so could be open to any amount of improvement so cant be discarded. PUTIN 12/1 can either track the leaders or actually lead the race, so that means both of my top two rated horses have been known to lead and this could be a fast run race and as long as the young jockey Danny Brock doesn't make any mistakes his allowance should swing things in his favour getting eight pounds from Dissent. Sweet Talking Guy hasn't any form at the course but did do a decent time at the distance at Kempton but it wouldn't be enough to win this so needs to improve to win.

SUMMARY: This race does have a few runners that could be dangerous if the course and/or surface brings about some improvement but I always stick with whats proven rather than what might happen, so at the odds 12/1 PUTIN is probably worth an each way bet but I wouldn't be going in too strongly. 

There are five other sprints and I'm not sure if the going will be suitable but just in case any of them dry out I'll list the other top rated horses with their prices and their preferred style of running.  

2:45 Carlisle - ENDERBY SPIRIT 20/1 usually likes to track the early pace. I also think the horse needs genuine good to firm going so doubt the going will be suitable but if it has dried out enough the price is way too big and an each way bet could prove fruitful.

4:40 Foss Las - WHITECREST 7/2 is either held up or can track the leaders and has been in reasonable form so must have a reasonable chance.

6:25 Nottingham - CLOCK OPERA 14/1 usually tracks the pace makers and has dropped down to the basement class six race and then with a seven-pound claimer on board and if the going is good or better then it surely must have a good each way chance and could quite easily win.

7:25 Nottingham - A nice class three conditions race and the three year old *SPEED HAWK 9/2 who is a track-the-leaders type of horse has a good chance of winning and has been in good form lately. *NR

7:55 Nottingham - Another horse that likes to track the leaders in OSCAR'S JOURNEY 12/1 so at the odds has to have an each way chance. As I've said, on the grass courses I'm hoping it dries out but if there's any cut in the ground then its a no bet.

PUTIN 12/1 4TH
CLOCK OPERA 20/1 UNP
OSCAR'S JOURNEY 12/1 3RD

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