Tuesday, 2 September 2014

3:20 Bath Racing Tips (3rd September) Valmina Top Rated At 14/1

Hamoody likes to track the leaders but only comes out sixth on my figures. I doubt it will be there at the finish. Silverrica is third top on my figures and achieved them here at this distance, so should have at least place claims. Ashkari likes to track the pace and being a three-year-old could improve but it's only fourth on my ratings so will need to improve quite a few pounds to win this. Ada Lovelace like the other three horses noted likes to track the leaders but only comes out eight on my ratings. Sleep Walk is another three-year-old which hasn't produced any good times, even when it won at Leicester at this distance on good to firm going. It is open to improvement which must be expected as it's the 2/1 favourite and has a high-profile owner and trainer. It may be shorter odds than should be because of these factors. Edged Out is one of two horses in the field that has been known to lead but is only seventh on my list. Living It Large is the other possible front runner but its times are poor and it may prefer a slower surface. The Dandy Yank likes to track the pace and is fifth on my chart so may struggle to even make the frame but is another three-year-old so it could improve. Fantasy Justifier is another three-year-old that likes to either be held up or tracks the pace but may prefer a slower surface. VALMINA 14/1 is my top rated and can be held up or track the leaders. Its best time came over five furlongs at Windsor but is a course-and-distance winner. Time Medician is a hold-up type who comes out second on my figures and its best time was recorded over six furlongs at Goodwood, so the distance will hold no fears. My Meteor is either a hold-up type or can track the pace but its times have all been too slow to register on my ratings.

SUMMARY: I'm always in a quandary with races that are not complete furlongs: the distance being five-furlongs and one-hundred-and-sixty-one yards. Do I go with a strong finishing five-furlong horse or with a weak finishing six furlong horse? The selection VALMINA 14/1 hasn't been at the top of its form lately but does come out on top here with a nice few spots in hand and has its best opportunity for quite a while. At the price I think it must be worth a small each way bet and just hope it springs back to form.

VALMINA 14/1 UNP

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