Tuesday, 14 October 2014

6:15 Kempton Winning Race Tips (15th October) COME JUMP RACING HERE ON SUNDAY HANDICAP

Lucky Royale - like quite a few of these runners - likes to track the leaders and with the apprentice (who has had eight wins from 168 rides) it comes out second on my figures. Forty-four of those rides have been for this trainer - just one win. Maybe not a great sign! 

Bubbly Bailey is one of two horses that have been known to lead and third or fourth in my ratings, depending on whether I count the apprentice on the top horse as a plus or minus so could still be there at the finish, and make the frame, possibly win if others fail to run to their best. 

Imaginary Diva has no form at this course and its two wins on the all-weather were at Southwell/Wolverhampton. On that reckoning it may prefer a slower surface but it has won on good to firm going and softer so difficult to pigeon hole this horse but I wouldn't be putting it in any of my bets. 

DANZOE 5/1 is my top rated. It can track the leaders or be held up and Christine Dunnett has a reasonable level of success when she employs apprentice Eoin Walsh, who takes off a handy five pounds and is worth every pound of his allowance. 

Greek Islands is another that likes to track the leaders but its final times haven't been fast enough to get into my top four ratings. 

Lucky Surprise is the first of a trio of three-year-olds but it has no course form so hard to evaluate. But the trainer also has the top weight with Steve Drowne riding. I assume this is the more fancied runner. It finished second last time out at this distance at Lingfield but beaten by four lengths, so I think it may prefer a sixth furlong but it can't be dismissed lightly. 

Sylvan Spirit is also a track the leaders type and the second three-year-old with no form at this course. It finished third nearly two lengths behind Lucky Surprise at Lingfield. It was also staying on at the finish and they both might need further. Their breeding suggests the same.

Mossgo can track the leaders or be held up and comes out second or third on my figures but its recent form has been quite poor and I would need to see some signs of revival before I could back it. At its best it's not quite good enough to win. 

Nora Batty, final three-year-old, has only had three runs and shown very little but you can never be absolutely sure when a horse is making its handicap debut. However, breeding suggests it would probably need further to show its best. 

Spic N Span is the second horse in the race that's been known to lead but it has never run at this course before, which is surprising as its had seventy-two runs on the all-weather but it looks like it may prefer a slower surface.

SUMMARY: There are a few horses that could upset the apple cart in this race so it's small stakes again. I always go with proven form and not what might be but if it runs to its best form the call has to be DANZOE 5/1.

Danzoe 5/1 2nd

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