Twelve runners in this lowly class six race over six furlongs, so consistency is not going to be a given. I'm already erring on the side of caution with small stakes.
Two horses have led before: Salvado, who won in Ireland but hasn't shown much yet over here. I think this horse needs a longer trip - so hopeful it will not be a danger.
Coiste Bodhar has run thirteen times on the all-weather without winning. However, any horse that leads - if achieving an uncontested lead - is always going to be a threat.
My sixth top rated is Compton Prince who like quite a few in this field likes to track the leaders. It has raced over this course and distance four times. When chasing the leaders it weakened but when held up off the pace it ran on as if wanting further - so its hard to say exactly what its best distance might be.
Fifth top is Divine Call. This gelding has run seven times over course and distance with one success. It is on the same official figure as that victory but I think there are better horses in this race so a place is the best it can hope.
Fourth top rated is Captain Kendall has won twice over course and distance, both occasions running to the same mark on my figures. It is consistent but needs to improve on those times to win here.
Third top is Varsovian. It has only had six runs so could have more improvement to come and won quite nicely last time out here but will need to improve to catch the two principal runners who are clear on my figures.
Second top rated is Ghost Train. It has run here four times over course and distance without winning and beaten by Divine Call (January) this year and is eight pounds worse off today. Additionally, Milton Bradley's gelding hasn't been in very good form. Ghost Train has been running consistently well but I think the official handicapper might have the measure of the horse now and it may need to drop a few pounds before it can win again.
Top rated is *RAY OF JOY 11/1. John Jenkin's eight-year-old mare is dropped into this class six race and should have a good chance to win with top weight - taking on lesser class horses, which it has done before. The stable has a good record when employing today's jockey [Silvestre De Sousa] with three winners from eleven rides on the stable's older horses.
*Ray Of Joy - Non Runner