1—Desert Strike has got times both from this course and Kempton that are quite close together so it gives me a good picture of this horses ability and that makes it fifth best and a place is the best this could hope for if others fail to produce their best but drawn out in stall ten doesn't help its cause.
2—Angel Flores is a three year old that's only had eight runs and has won twice and been placed on three occasions so is fairly consistent, its three runs on the all weather haven't shown much form apart from the win at Wolverhampton when that course was riding a lot slower than nowadays but I cant discount the horse easily as it did one good piece of work on the grass on good to firm ground at Thirsk and reproduction of that could make it a hidden danger.
3—Parisian Pyramid has produced a time that puts it in sixth place and can be held up or track the leaders but it has had twenty runs on the all weather tracks without ever winning but has been placed a few times and that's the best it can realistically hope for here.
4—Tidal's Baby has been very much out of form lately and may really need a bit further to show its best its best time doesn't put it in my top eight so hopes look slim.
5—Coasta Filey hasn't ever run at this course but using its best time at Kempton at this distance doesn't put it in my top eight and is usually held up but it is only three years old and could have improvement to come.
6—Sweet Talking Guy has run only once over course and distance and that produced a time good enough for second or third place,(the top three rated have got differing figures at the courses and their position alters depending which figure you want to use) its also been drawn in stall one which could help its causes even more then there's a five pound capable claimer on board which moves it back up to joint second place, this horse is usually up with the pace just behind the leaders but from this draw may try to make all and with an uncontested lead could have its own way at the front and set a pace whereas to leave something in the tank to repel all challengers but the stable has only had one winner from sixty five runners since June this year.
7—Majestic Song has a time from the new surface at Wolverhampton that would put it in in first place but I think the times there at the moment are wrong so it may not be as good as it might seem at first glance but using its time over this course and distance it only comes out seventh best also it hasn't been lucky with the draw being stuck out in stall twelve of twelve and the stable hasn't been in great form lately but hasn't had many runners.
8—Temple Road is either first or joint second on my figures (I know its getting a bit confusing but hopefully it will become clear by the time I've finished) and can either be held up or track the leaders and its got stall six so should be able to get a decent early position but once again the stable isn't in the greatest of form, so not sure what to expect. 9—Harrogate Fair has only ran on this course once but only produced a slow time and if we used its best time from Kempton it comes out eighth and with its hold up style I think it may struggle to catch the leaders.
10—Another Try is usually just behind the pace setters early on but time-wise its only seventh best the jockey booking doesn't inspire either as hes using a seven pound claiming apprentice who has ridden for the stable five times before without managing a win, so I'm dubious as to whether its significant.
11—Rock On Candy has raced twice on the all weather tracks, Kempton and Wolverhampton, but with no joy and looking at its grass form it looks like it may be better suited to the slower surface at Southwell to show its best form.
12—Varsovian has done a time over course and distance to make it fourth on my list and its running style of being up with the pace makers could help it because I think it would do even better over a longer distance.
SUMMARY: Its tricky when your trying to work out if a good time at Kempton can be repeated at Lingfield, that's why some horses have more than one rating.. Im sticking as usual with the horse with the fastest time recorded at the course so the selection has to be TEMPLE ROAD 7/1
Temple Road 7/1 4th
Temple Road 7/1 4th