Monday, 24 November 2014

3:40 Southwell Winning Race Tip (25th November) £20 RISK-FREE BET AT UNIBET HANDICAP

1—Musical Molly is usually a track-the-leader type of horse and it's sixth best on my ratings but I'm of the opinion it isn't really a sprinter in the true sense of things and would prefer another furlong to show its best form.
2—Borough Boy is quite versatile in the way it runs and can deploy any tactics, which is handy as this is my second top rated but I doubt it will get an uncontested lead if it tries those tactics as there are other possible front runners who could make it a frantic early pace but it must have more than a chance especially if the top rated doesn't perform to its best.
3—Best Tamayuz is a three year old that was well backed last time out over this course and distance where it won in a time that makes in number three at the top of my figures and it could possibly still have more improvement to come so should have at least place claims here.
4—Mr Mo Jo hasn't done anything of note time-wise and might prefer a faster surface on the all weather and also prefers a furlong less so I doubt it can be held up to get the distance and then stay on to catch the leaders as I think this race will be run at a fast early pace.
5—Black Dave hasn't any course and distance form to work with and this course is now a unique surface on the all weather and may prefer a faster surface and being a hold up type I cant see it catching the leaders.
6—Meebo is a three year old and can either be held up or track the leaders here but may really prefer a furlong shorter trip but it does still come out seventh on my figures over this distance but I doubt that will be good enough for this race.
7—Clapperboard is another three year old and like all of this age group could have some level of improvement still to come but there's no form over this course and distance to work on for this horse and even though it can lead or track the leaders I think it will prefer a faster surface than this one.
8—Speightowns Kid this one has been in poor form recently it also has no form over this course and distance but did record a fast time here before but over five furlongs but it did also record a decent time at this distance but at Wolverhampton, it can be held up or track the leaders so could be a hidden danger on its first attempt over this trip here.
9—Invigilator is eighth on my list and can be held up or track the leaders but it would take a lot of the others not to run to their best for this one to win and although it finished third last time out it was in a fairly slow time.
10—Fathom Five is one of the possible front runners here or it can track the leaders and is fifth on my figures but I've already said my second and third top rated are also possible leaders so I'm not sure if it could lead here even if it wanted to.
11—Satellite Express is a three year old and has only had four runs to date over five to seven furlongs and the form of those runs is poor, so it would need to suddenly sprout wings to win this on all known form plus I think it wont be sprinting when it shows some improved level of form.
12—Lucky Mark can track the leaders or be held up and comes out fourth on my ratings so must have some degree of a chance of making the frame and it recorded its best time when four lengths behind Best Tamayuz but isn't weighted to turn the form around.
13—Art Dzeko is actually my top rated and has a few spots in hand at these weights if at its best but it hasn't run for two hundred and twenty days and has never won after coming back from a break before even though it has run well and been placed and is another possible front runner, at its best it could lead all the way but after the break its impossible to know for sure but could be placed or win if they have got it fit.
14—Laughing Rock has only recorded slow times over the course and distance so I doubt it will be involved in the finish here even though it usually tracks the early leaders.
SUMMARY: My top rated is ART DZEKO 20/1 but it hasn't had a run for 220 days and I'm relying on it being fit enough to run to its best and a small each way bet may be best. Borough Boy is mt second top rated but the stables recent form has been poor and my third top is the improving three year old Best Tamayuz and if the top two don't run to their best this one is the most likely to prosper.
Art Dzeko 25/1 Unp

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