Tuesday, 25 November 2014

7:15 Kempton Winning Race Tips (26th November) BETBRIGHT - LIVE THE MOMENT HANDICAP

1—Lancelot Du Lac has done a time at this course to put it into third place and is either held up or tracks the leaders but had done an even faster time at Lingfield which would put it in first place unless you use the new Wolverhampon times which are a lot quicker than they have ever been and it will take a while before you can find the link between the times there and Lingfield and Kempton.
2—Dungannon is a good horse but its only had two runs on the all weather without showing anything worthwhile and as its best form on grass is with cut in the ground it may be better off running at Southwell and I think its best trip is five furlongs and not the six furlongs here today.
3—Hoof It has recorded the best time of the field at this course and it usually likes to track the leaders and there is two known front runners running so there should be a decent early pace which should suit.
4—Hallelujah is another that usually tracks the leaders but its best time only puts it in sixth place but its trainer James Fanshawe does well with his all weather runners here with a thirty four percent win rate and shows a decent level stakes profit, I'm not a fan of the female jockey employed here but she does do well for this stable when employed.
5—Pipers Note is once again another likely to sit just behind the early pace setters and on its best course and distance time it comes out second on my ratings, the stable hasn't had a winner since September but haven't had too many runners, on this horses last run at Kempton it was three quarters of a length behind Steelriver but is six pounds better off today so should reverse the form this time out.
6—Out Do has only run at Kempton once and that was in 2012 when it won but in a relatively slow time but it was only a three year old then and has improved form since then but obviously elsewhere, it has ran a decent time at Wolverhampton recently but others still hold it timewise on their times from there.
7—Steelriver is held by Pipers Note on recent form and its time puts it fifth on my ratings and I do think it would be better with further to run and as it likes to track the leaders it could be near the front for quite a while but then might get outpaced before it stays on again near the finish.
8—Lady Frances is a three year old so it could still have some improvement to come but what its shown so far doesn't put it in my top six but it can lead or track the lead so cant be discarded lightly but it would need a lot of improvement to win this.
9—Upavon is seventh on my list and can be held up or track the leaders and recorded its best time four runs ago and hasn't had ideal conditions since then but would need to improve to win this.
10—Counter Ridge can be held up or track the pace makers and its best time makes it fourth on my figures but it hasn't shown much form lately and was three lengths fourth when behind Steelriver and isn't weighted to turn the form around.
11—Elusivity has recorded a relatively slow time over course and distance but would maybe better off at five furlongs and ran well at that distance two runs ago and has not tried this distance much lately as it seems a forlorn hope.
12-- Major Jack is a three year old who is in very good form and still improving but to win this it would need to improve quite a pounds again, not impossible but I doubt it can do it but if others fail to run to their best its never say never.
SUMMARY: The selection is HOOF IT 14/1 it should have a decent pace to aim at with a couple of known front runners and a reproduction of its last run at this course and distance would see it winning this, it has had a three month break but it has won before on its first run after a break so its not a negative but at the price it has to be an each way bet.

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