1>Johnny Splash is my fourth top rated horse and usually either tracks the leaders or leads itself: a winner of its last two races. Roger Teal's gelding ran its better time in September when competing in a class six race but was quite a bit slower this month in a class five. Even though it's at the top of the handicap, I think it needs to improve again to win this race.
2>Birdie Queen has had six attempts on the all-weather without success and its times over this course and distance have been too slow to make my top six but its does like to lead or track the leaders so could be a hidden danger but might like a slightly longer trip.
3>Arctic Lynx is either held up or can track the leaders and is fifth on my ratings and is another that might prefer further. It did win at this trip last time out in a claiming race but the time wasn't very fast so I'll stick with my idea of it wanting further.
4>Dreams Of Glory has only run once at this course and distance but it was a slow effort but it could be another hidden danger and it's another that can either track the leaders or lead.
5>Billy Red is another that likes to lead but can also sit just off the pace if they are going too fast in front. John Jenkins' horse finished fourth behind Johnny Splash last time out and beaten under two lengths but it's five pounds better off here and that day it never got to the front despite trying very hard That cost him at the end of the race but today it's drawn in stall one so has got the advantage if trying to lead.
6>Pharoh Jake is either held up or can track the leaders and comes out third on my figures but well beaten by Arctic Lynx last time out over course and distance. I think it might be better suited to a slower surface.
7>Cardinal is my sixth top rating but may prefer another furlong and another horse that might do better on a slower surface. It beat Pharoh Jake when second behind Johnny Splash last time out but at the revised weights there's nothing between them. Again, it might like a slower surface.
8>Aaranyow is the fifth horse that has been known to lead before and stall three could help its cause even though it can sit off the pace if needs be. With a good five-pound claiming apprentice on board it could go well.
9>Burnt Cream hasn't got any form at this course and is usually a hold-up horse. It has won at this distance but at Kempton. However, the time isn't good enough to make my top six.
SUMMARY: Billy Red is my top rated and from stall one could try to lead all the way but that's before you take the five pounds off AARANYOW 9/2 for the capable apprentice riding this then becomes the top rated and it's another possible front runner and isn't badly drawn in stall three, so the race should be between these two unless they go too fast and set the race up for a fast finishing horse which could bring Pharoh Jake into the reckoning but I'm going with the leading pair to have the race between them.
Aaranyo 8/1 Unp