Tuesday, 27 January 2015

2:40 Chelmsford Winning Race Tips (28th January) Clear Praise is the percentage call

1> Only Ten Per Cent usually tracks the pace but is drawn in stall nine which isn't ideal. When Adam Kirby has ridden for this trainer, he's had three wins from eleven mounts so it points to it being a trier and its last two runs have been in class four races. It is now top weight in this class five race and is second top rated on my ratings. 

2> The Dandy Yank may find this trip a bit too far and can track the leaders or as will it need to do here be held up but its times only make it my sixth top rated. 

3> Clear Praise has run the odd fast time but its recent form has been poor. However, it can never be discarded as it has been known to spring back to form without warning and in this race it's the only known front runner. This could be its chance to get back to winning ways. I just wish the stable was in a bit better form. 

4> Ada Lovelace comes out fifth on my figures but could be a hidden danger as its done a fast time on good-to-firm ground. 

5> Daring Dragon has only produced slow times at Kempton which has the same surface as here and would need to show a lot more to win this.

6> For Ayman usually tracks the leaders and is my third top rated. Its best time came at Lingfield so ought to be able to make the frame. 

7> Colourbearer is the fourth top rated from a time at Kempton and is a hold-up type of horse so could make the frame. 

8> Flighty Clarets has had six races on the all-weather without any wins, it can be held up or track the leaders but needs to improve a lot to win this race. 

9> John Coffey has had eight all-weather runs without winning and its best time at Lingfield was quite poor so it would also need to improve dramatically to win this race. 

3:10 Chelmsford - This is a good class two sprint but its hard to know exactly what to expect on this course, Guishan won in a fast time here last time out but that was in a class four race so not sure its class enough to win in this grade, Trojan Rocket returned a fast time at Kempton in a class six claimer and then won again last time out in a class three so this is another step higher but I'm not completely sure if it can manage this or not. Pretend did a very fast time at Wolverhampton but that's a different surface so another doubtful choice but it is a proven class two horse, the top weight Glen Moss has run in listed races on the last two occasions so this is a drop in class but may be just as good if not better over a seventh furlong. 

SUMMARY: 2:40 Chelmsford:  I'm giving CLEAR PRAISE 13/2 another chance here solely for the fact that it is the only known front runner in the race and a stall two draw is a big help as well. The apprentice jockey hasn't ridden a winner for the stable from twenty-two attempts so stakes have to be kept small, plus I think the one to take advantage, if the selection fails to lead, is the top weight ONLY TEN PER CENT 8/1 so I will either back the selection and have a saving bet on the other or I will dutch both of them to make the same profit whichever wins. 

3:10 Chelmsford: A very good race but too many if's and but's for me to come to a real conclusion. The three best times all from differing tracks are all from front running types so it could be a fast run race and then we have a horse dropped in class to consider, plus two possible hidden dangers, it makes it too hard to fathom for me so I'm leaving it well alone and will just enjoy watching the race.

Clear Praise 13/2 3rd
Only Ten Per Cent 8/1 4th

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

only ten per cent for me to as it looks to have a good chance for a place ..for ayman a danger