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Friday, 20 February 2015

1:45 Lingfield Winning Race Tips (21st February) UNIBET CLEVES STAKES (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race)

A very nice, competitive Listed-class sprint. I ought to make this my best race for betting purposes but it doesn't quite take top spot on my winner radar. The biggest problem is that there's no known front runners. If Rivellino was tuned-up I might have expected it could be a possible front runner but it has never won before after a break so I'm going to eliminate it from my idea of the winner. It looks poor value at 11/2 to back and hope it isn't fit enough to win. History Book is well weighted on its best time but it's up in class by quite a bit and might find these too good. The selection is ALBEN STAR 11/2. Yes, it hasn't run since October but it has won after a break so it's not putting me off.
4:35 Lingfield - I'm not going to be very original in this race. TEMPLE ROAD 10/1 has won its last two races in class five so this move up to class four looks natural, It won well the time before last in a fast time which is what it needs to show here. In its last race the early pace was quite slow - nearly a second worse than its last races time - and then when it hit the front there was another horse that also had something left in the tank and it finished as dead heat. Searchlight, Brother Tiger and Gregori have all been known to lead before so the pace will hopefully be fast enough for the selection to finish the stronger.
5:05 Lingfield - 
1— Pensax Lad may find this trip too short but it's my sixth top rated and is either held up or tracks the leaders but it needs others to falter to make the frame.
2— Hopes N Dreams is one of the possible leaders and has led before over a furlong further but has got the ideal draw in stall one to try and lead if its fast enough down in trip. It's also had twelve runs on the all-weather without winning and isn't in my top six.
3— Muhdiq has no recent form at this course and I think this surface may not suit.

4— Fair Value is my top rated and isn't badly drawn in stall four to get a decent early position and to hopefully finish the strongest.
5— Clearing is another possible front runner and is my second top rated runner and it could be hard to catch for most of these opponents.
6— Angelito has only had four runs on the all-weather but no wins. This one could be a hidden danger but hopefully not in this race.
7— Head Space's time from at this course would only make it my sixth top rated but its time recorded at Kempton would make it third best rated. However, if you deduct the seven-pounds apprentice's claim it pushes it to the top of my list. Not all horses like both courses equally even though they have the same surface and I'm going to use its course form and leave it out of my calculations.
8— Royal Acquisition is the third horse that is known to front runner and is fourth top rated. If I ignore Head Space, it moves up to third, so it could quite easily have enough to make the frame.
9— Dishy Guru is fifth top rated strictly on times but its last run in this class was quite poor and it will most likely be outclassed.
SUMMARY: With both my fourth and second top rated being front runners this could be a fast run race - hopefully fast enough to be running out of steam as selection FAIR VALUE 6/1 starts to close in on them and prove the stronger at the line. I'm afraid there's no value in price for backing any of the front runners as cover bets as all three are under ten-to-one, which would be a guideline price for me to consider it as an alternative value bet.

Alben Star 6/1 Unp
Temple Road 12/1 Unp
Fair Value 6/1 Unp

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