QUICK TIPS: 3:45 Southwell - ABI SCARLET 11/2 - 5:45 Wolverhampton - SMIDGEN 7/4 W
3:45 Southwell - Nine runners in a class four race but its not the best quality class four race, Ben Hall is the top weighted horse but has never run at this course and its best time at Lingfiled is nothing special, so exactly what it will do on this course I've got no idea but it is the only known front runner in the field and from stall three it could have every chance to lead but I'm going to go against it, my third top rated is Showtime Star who likes to track the leaders so could have place claims, there's only one spot between Only Ten Per Cent and Abi Scarlet and when you know you need sixteen spots for a length they are very nearly level and both also like to track the early pace and they are drawn in stalls two and four and because the likely leader is drawn in stall three Only Ten Per Cent might not get a clear run early on and this makes me stick with ABI SCARLET 11/2 but its so close and I'm not sure what the likely front runner will do on this surface so stakes have to be kept to a minimum.
3:05 Southwell - Only eight runners but quite a poor race. Under Approval and College Doll, who is my fourth top rated, have been known to lead before. Third top rated is Pabusar who has had eighteen runs on the all- weather without winning so it might make the frame but I couldn't back it to win with that record. Second top rated is Very First Blade who might prefer a sixth furlong and also the jockey has ridden eighteen times without success which puts me off this ones chances. The top rated is Imjin River who had a break from January 2014 till December 2015 but its four runs since that break have been very poor and that also puts me off this one. Something has obviously got to win the race but I cant find what has the best chance so I'm going to leave the race well alone.
1—Smidgen has versatile running style and is my top rated and there's nothing in the trainer and jockey stats that would put me off it.
2—Hamoody usually tracks the leaders but is only my fifth top rated so not for me here.
3—Sir Billy Wright also tracks the early pace and comes fourth on my figures has only ever had five races but is still a maiden but could have improvement to come.
4—Ada Lovelace hasn't any form on this new surface and is another that usually tracks the leaders but on form from elsewhere it could be a hidden danger.
5—Kerbaaj usually likes to track the early pace setters but I think this trip will be too short for it unless they go too fast up front.
6—Point North is the other possible front runner but is also a versatile type concerning its running tactics and my second top rated.
7—Summerinthecity has had sixteen runs on the all weather without winning so not for me.
8—Logans Lad is my third top rated and is another that tracks the leaders.
SUMMARY: The top two are also the two most likely leaders so unless they go too fast in front then I think one of them will win and have to stick with SMIDGEN 7/4 who will either lead all the way or race just behind Point North and prove the stronger. I'm not a fan of going for short priced favourites but I had this marked down as a fairly strong bet so cant change my mind now.
Abi Scarlet 11/2 4th
Smidgen 7/4 Unp