Friday, 13 March 2015

6:15 Wolverhampton Winning Race Tips (14th March) UNIBET OFFER DAILY JOCKEY/TRAINER SPECIALS HANDICAP (Tapeta)

QUICK TIPS: 3:40 Lingfield - BOOM THE GROOM 6/1 W -  6:15 Wolverhampton - SERAPHIMA 14/1 EW

1—Rafaaf hasn't got any form on this new surface and to have a chance here it will need to track the leaders because I think it might be outpaced and need a longer trip. 

2—Seraphima can either track the leaders or be held up and its another that might be better over a longer trip but its my top rated and with a clear run should catch the likely leader. 

3—Prigsnov Dancer usually likes to track the early pace, its my third top rated but it might need a bit of luck early from stall nine but could make the frame with a clear run. 

4—Incantare has got poor form lately and has had four runs at Lingfield on the all weather without any success and I don't think that will change here. 

5—Waterloo Dock is the only horse in the race that has been known to lead before and has been drawn in stall ten, its my second top rated so most of these could have trouble catching it and if a good price it could be an each way bet or a cover bet in case the selection doesn't get a clear run. 

6—Lazy Sioux will need to be held up here as its much better over five furlongs and this doesn't look like its day to win at six furlongs. 

7—Diamond Vine won last time out at this course and distance and ran very close to its best ever time but against these it only comes out fifth top but its definitely in form. 

8—Lizzy's Dream has been out of form lately and there's nothing that says to me that will change in this race though its not run over this course and distance. 

9—See Vermont can be held up or as I will need to do here track the leader but its much better over five furlongs so not for me here over size furlongs. 

10—Athenian Garden has been off the course for a very long time and may find this distance too short for it although its only ever had eight runs it could improve for the run over further. 

11—Natalia is fourth on my list but has been drawn widest of all in stall thirteen which wont help its cause so not for me in this race. 

12—China Excels is another horse that would be better off when dropped back to five furlongs and I cant rate its chances in this race. 

13—Sweet Piccolo has had seven all weather runs without a win and it may really need a longer distance so its got limited appeal to me here. 

SUMMARY: The way this race is made up I think I can concentrate on just the two runners if things go to plan, Waterloo Dock 9/1 is my second top rated and the only horse in the race that has been known to lead before and with an uncontested lead could make it hard for the rest to catch and I would probably recommend backing this horse along with the selection just in case it saves enough for the finish to repel all the challengers but as is my rule i'm sticking with the fastest horse in the race so the selection is SERAPHIMA 14/1 who should be staying on well at the end of the race and at the price has to be given as an each way bet. 

3:40 Lingfield

I love these high class sprints but they are very often hard to work out because of what I call hidden dangers - there's three in this race.

Green Door hasn't shown much form since being a two-year-old but is a horse that can either track the leaders or actually lead. I don't think it will be its turn today but in the right grade it will spring back to form.

Zac Brown may need to drop down into handicap company to show its best form.

The biggest and not really hidden danger could be Pretend who won very well last time out over six furlongs and I wasn't sure if the distance would be too short for it but I was proven wrong. It now drops down to five-furlongs and might be caught out this time by faster early paced horses but I couldn't guarantee it. Looking at the early prices it has been made favourite but there is quite a range from 7/4—5/2 so different people are of differing opinions on its chance here. 

The fourth of the natural front runners plus two others that can lead when needs be, so it's a complex race. 

I've got Alben Star down as my fourth top rated despite the fact that I think it's a better horse over six furlongs and it will be staying on well at the finish but maybe not in time to catch all those in front of it but it could make the frame if just one of those rated superior don't run to their best. 

Third top is Royal Bajan who is a natural front runner and not badly drawn in stall four so another with place claims.

Second top is Masamah who is versatile with which style of running it employs in a race but there's five of those that have led before drawn in the five inside stalls so it could be frantic near the rails but from stall three it's not badly drawn if good enough to try and lead but I think place claims may be its limit.

Top rated is BOOM THE GROOM 6/1 who won last time out over this course and distance and in this grade of race so from stall one it should have a chance to lead all the way but with the hidden dangers looming in the background stakes have to be kept on the low side.

Boom The Groom 7/1 3rd
Seraphima 20/1 Unp

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