Monday, 29 June 2015

3:45 Hamilton (30th June) EBF STALLIONS SOBA CONDITIONS STAKES (CLASS 3) (3yo+)

Only seven runners but a nice race for its class but the two horses that have been known to lead before are the two lowest rated horses so I think they will set it up for a finishing type. The top weight Move In Time has dropped in class to run here but its not been on a racecourse for two hundred and sixty eight days so may need this run for fitness and having been off for this long it might have been due to problems with its health but on its best time from Ascot it would be my second top rated, top spot goes to SILVANUS 25/1 is in the veteran stage now as a ten year old but is still hopefully capable at this level but I would advise keeping stakes on the low side and it is a shame there's only seven runners else it would have been an each way bet but in my opinion there's not much value in doing an each way bet with only two places. 

4:15 Hamilton - Nine runners in a class four race with six of them having been known to lead so it looks like being a fast run race, of the front runners the three year old Danot is my third top rated and could have some improvement still to come but it would need to be quite a lot if the top rated repeats its best time, second top and another possible front runner is Fast Finian who's best time came at this course but top spot goes to JUBILEE BRIG 10/1 who recorded a time at Windsor three runs ago which would be plenty to win this race “BUT” and it is a big because its not won on turf from thirteen attempts but it has been second twice so its not going to put me off having a small each way wager and if you bet on Betfair it would maybe be better to do more on the place part of the bet than the win part. 

5:15 Hamilton Quite a poor race and even more so when you realise there's no known front runner in the field and then there's only two horses that have even recorded a time good enough to register on my graphs, Pabusar can be held up or track the leaders and is my second top rated while top spot goes to BOXING SHADOWS 12/1 who has been running in better class races and this drop down in class will hopefully revitalise it and prove the stronger at the finish but once again the price is big enough to go each way. 

5:30 Brighton - Five runners with only Bapak Bangsawan known to lead so could try to win the race from the front if uncontested in the early stages, there's perhaps a couple of slightly hidden dangers in Shamrock Sheila and Caso Do Lago but the only one that has recorded a time for my graphs is ADA LOVELACE 7/2 who normally tracks the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish plus the trainer does well here with his older horses and the stable has been in good form lately. 

6:40 Cheopstow - A big field of fifteen but a poor class six race in reality and the race is made even harder by the fact there's not one known natural front runner and I've only got three horses with a rating, Mad Endeavour is third top but hasn't won on turf from nine attempts, second spot goes to Consistant who is like the third top rated best when tracking the leaders but my top rating is TOP COP 16/1 who also likes to track the leaders, with the lack of known early pace makes me think that stakes have to be kept low but hopefully a small each way bet will give us some profit.

Silvanus 25/1 3rd No bet - Soft ground
Jubilee Brig 10/1 5th No bet -Soft ground
Boxing Shadows 12/1 3rd - No bet - Soft ground
Ada Lovelace 7/2 1st 
Top Cop 16/1 Unp

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