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Thursday, 30 July 2015

3:45 Goodwood Winning Race Tips (31st July) QATAR KING GEORGE STAKES (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

Group two class race with fifteen quality horses and maybe a few hidden dangers but as usual I'm going to stick with the proven than go with potential, I've got Take Cover down as my top rated but this does look reliant on good to firm or firmer going to show its best and I doubt that will be the going today so I'm doubting this one can show its best here which was the case last time out at York where it was seemingly fancied but finished last of the twelve runners, Muthmir is my second top rated despite it carrying a four pound group penalty and this one wont mind if the going is at least good but maybe not on softer going and it may be even better over another furlong, third top rated is Move In Time is another that may need at least good ground to show its best but I'm not sure if it will dry out enough but if its good then I would be going with MUTHMIR 6/1 if its good to firm them I would do both TAKE COVER, 25/1 my top rated and Muthmir. 

5.:25 Bath - Only five runners so I'm doubting there will be much value in the race, ive got Diamond Vine down as second top rated at the bottom of the handicap but this one is a strange horse as its impossible to say how its going to run but its too inconsistent for my liking, the third top Captain Ryan and top rated SWENDAB 9/4 are both possible front runners and I'm just hoping its a good enough price to be worth considering as a selection. 

7:20 Musselburgh - A very close handicapped race but that's to be expected in class three, of the eleven runners only Rusty Rocket is known as a natural front runner but isnt in my top six ratings, GO GO GREEN 16/1 starts off as my fourth top rated but if you take off the seven pounds that the apprentice claims it becomes top rated, third top is Pearl Acclaim who prefers a slower surface but is still competitive on good ground, second top is I'll Be Good if it can repeat the time it did at this course and distance before which could also apply to BUNCE 20/1 but this ones best time really does look like a one off when it chased the leaders in a fast run race over this course and distance so cant be dismissed from my list of potential winners but FLASH CITY 10/1 comes out top but this one has been running in class four races and it seems strange they would do this unless they think they have a good chance in this field, I would be looking to backing all three each way to small stakes to show a profit whichever one wins. 

8:55 Musselburgh - *This is a very poor run of the mill class six race with nine runners and two front runners and only two that have recorded fast enough times to register on my graphs, Oil Strike could try to lead but its times lately have been poor, Busy Bimbo is one of the two that has a recorded figure but its time was from 2014 and so far its not shown the capability of repeating that time but never say never but the other horse with a rating is ROY'S LEGACY 11/1 who is also the other front runner and it was also tipped up last time it ran six days ago at Newcastle but that day it was ridden by an apprentice and instead of going to the front like I expected it was reigned back and held up but its not the type of horse to come from off the pace to win it has to be able to lead and set its own pace to show its best and it might have a chance again to do that here and if it does get an uncontested lead ought to be hard to peg back.

Muthmir 6/1 1st
Take Cover 25/1 2nd (Eric gave £95 Exacta - superb!!!!!!!)
Swendab 5/2 1st 
Bunce 25/1 7th
Flash City 16/1 9th 
Go Go Green 25/1 Unp
Roy's Legacy 12/1 Unp


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