Monday, 21 September 2015

3:00 Beverley Winning Race Tips (22nd Sept) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EDDIE AND VIOLET SMITH EBF CONDITIONS STAKES (CLASS 3) (3yo+)

1—Line Of Reason is the best horse on official figures but he only comes out third best on my figures but the reason for that is that the horse isn't quite so good on good to firm or firmer ground which is where the fastest times are usually recorded. 

2—Pipers Note has tried class two a couple of times but doesn't look good enough to be competitive in this race. 

3—Silvanus is in about the right class of race to show its best but I think there are two horses that are better class and it might make the frame but im doubtful it can win the race. 

4—Bix may prefer a longer trip and hasn't shown enough in this class of race for me to think its capable of winning. 

5—Duke Of Firenze is my fourth top rated and is another that doesn't want the going to be too firm and therefore doesn't record very fast times and could make the frame but I doubt it will win. 

6—Green Door is the only known front runner in the race and if the going is good to firm I think it might lead all the way. 

7—Mobsta is a three year old that's only had two races finishing second and first but hasn't run since November last year and has only run on soft going, so if its good to firm or better im not sure if it will suit the horse. 

SUMMARY: The going would decide which horse I was going to back, if the going was good to firm or better then I would back the top rated GREEN DOOR 7/1 to lead all the way but if it was good going I would split my bet between that one and LINE OF REASON 6/4 but as usual if the going is soft I wont be betting and looking at the weather forecast its predicting rain again Monday and Tuesday so I doubt the going will be good to firm but I can but hope. 

4:50 Lingfield - A ten runner all weather class six race and half the field have led before so it should be fast for the class and the best of the front runners could prove to be BUBBLY BAILEY 7/1 but its drawn in stall eight with the other front runners being in stalls four, six, seven and nine, who is only one pound behind my joint top rated couple, Novabridge from stall five and im wondering if this one will get a clear run early in the race but it couldnt have a better jockey than Adam Kirby to help its cause, the other top rated is PHAROH JAKE 8/1 who is drawn in stall ten so could follow the front runners across to the rails and get a good early position. I will be backing both of them to show a profit whichever one wins, I was going to put up three selections but I decided to drop Novabridge as its only equal with Pharoh Jake and that's if it gets a clear run but thinking about that there's no guarantee that Bubbly Bailey will be able to get to the front so it looks a hard race and my stakes will be kept low.

Green Door 7/1 1st
Line Of Reason 6/4 Unp
Bubbly Bailey 7/1 1st
Pharoah Jake 8/1 Unp

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