Tuesday, 6 October 2015

8:25 Kempton Winning Race Tips (7th Oct) 32RED/EBFSTALLIONS.COM CONDITIONS STAKES (CLASS 3) (3yo+)

1—Dutch Masterpiece won nicely on Saturday at Ascot but that was over five furlongs and the extra furlong stretches its stamina to the limit, so if they go fast from the off it might not get the distance but if its a slow early pace it might stay the trip but im doubting its stamina so not for me. 

2—Charles Molson also doesn't have any form over this course and distance but could be a bit of a hidden danger with the right circumstances but probably not here. 

3—Chookie Royale is the official top rated in this conditions race and its a drop in class down to class three here and its the only horse known to have led before and if it gets to the front here it ought to be very hard to catch but it hasn't got any form on this track but has on this surface. 

4—Hallelujah can be held up or track the leaders and could possibly make the frame but I doubt its chances of winning the race. 

5—Horsted Keynes has only produced slow times on the all weather tracks and I cant see it being involved in the finish here. 

6—Lancelot Du Lac is the second best official rating and has done the best time of those that have ran over course and distance so should be involved the finish and this race is a drop in class for it so it must have some chance. 

7—Steelriver may really prefer a longer trip on the all weather so should be staying on at the finish but im not sure if it will be enough for it to make the frame. 

8—Lyfka is a three year old that could have some improvement to come but it needs a lot of improvement to win this and i'll stick with the proven. 

SUMMARY: Quite a nice class three conditions race with just eight runners but I doubt an each way bet will concern me in this race, I've got it down to two runners, the official top rating 111 belongs to CHOOKIE ROYALE 3/1 but it doesn't have any form over this course and distance but its form from Lingfield and Chelmsford which have the same surface are good and as its the only known front runner, it has even tried over longer distances so its stamina shouldn't be in doubt so if it does lead it could be very hard to catch, the actual top speed figure from this course only is LANCELOT DU LAC 100/30 who is the second highest official rated off 108 and would be three pounds better off if contesting a handicap as they both carry the same weight here but in case the former doesn't take to this course I will be backing both to show a profit whichever one wins, I know its not the greatest bet but I, like the bookies cant see past these two when looking for the winner.

Lancelot Du Lac 100/30 1st 
Chookie Royale 3/1 4th

No comments: