Sunday, 22 November 2015

3:35 Chelmsford Winning Race Tips (23rd Nov) BET TOTETRIFECTA HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105)

On paper, a nice looking class two minimum distance sprint but the problem is the lack of data to work from at this course but I'll start by analysing each horse separately and see what happens to the overall picture and see if I can find a line of attack:- 

1—Medician Man can be held up or track the leaders but hasn't any form at this course and originally I marked it down as a possibly hidden danger but looking at its times at Lingfield it looks like six furlongs may suit it better so not for me in this race. 

2—Perfect Pasture is a possible front runner but not sure it's quite good enough to get to the front from stall nine with other possible leaders drawn much better and this might not be its day but could be a hidden danger another day in the right race. 

3—Secret Missile is my joint third top rated and usually tracks the leaders and may need a bit of luck to get a good early position but with a clear run it could maybe be placed. 

4—Mappin Time is the other joint third top rated but may be better on a slower surface and stall ten isn't going to help its cause here but it could make the frame if everything falls into its favour. 

5—Waseem Faris hasn't got any form at this course but has had seven winless runs on the all-weather and another that may prefer a slower surface so it's not my idea of a betting proposition. 

6—Shipyard is another possible front runner but once again stall eight isn't ideal but it could possibly be a hidden danger but I don't think it will suddenly sprint to life here. 

7—Dynamo Walt is my top rated and can be held up or track the leaders so if it does get a decent run from stall six it should be staying on strongly at the finish and could win if repeating its best time over this course and distance. 

8—Come On Dave is another possible front runner and stall three is no drawback but is only seventh best on my ratings so maybe not fast enough to lead the way especially with the horse drawn in stall one also looking to set the early pace.

9—Brother Tiger is my second top rated and a possible leader and from the prime draw in stall one it could attempt to lead all the way and has a decent chance to do just that, I just hope nothing else contests it for the lead early on. 

10—It Must Be Faith can lead or track the leaders but isn't in my top five and the widest draw isn't going to help its cause unless it flies out and cuts across and hinders the whole field of runners but I can't quite see that happening so its not for me. 

11—Even Stevens is another possible leader but once again a poor draw in stall eleven and it has no form here but it has done quite well at Kempton but it will need some luck to win this. 

12—Stocking the only three-year-old in the race but is my fifth top rated and usually likes to track the leaders but needs to improve to win this. 

SUMMARY: I can only work with what data there is available and I'm going with two horses against the field, firstly will be my second top rated BROTHER TIGER 12/1 who being one of the several frontrunners could make good use of the stall one draw and if getting to the front should be very hard to catch and at the price I will be having an each way bet as there's only DYNAMO WALT 18/1 who has got a faster time at the course so with a clear run this one could be staying on strongly at the finish and is also a big enough price for a second each way bet so there will be a profit if either does their best and then I just have to hope none of the ones marked as possible dangers come and spoil my fun.

Brother Tiger 12/1 2nd
Dynamo Walt 18/1 3rd`

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