Friday, 22 January 2016
4:05 Lingfield Winning Race Tips (23rd January) DAILY UNIBET EARLY PRICES FROM 9AM HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70)
1—Jaarih is a four year old with only a small amount of form to work with, I'm not sure what its best distance is so I've marked it down as a possible hidden danger, I wouldn't be backing it but would keep an eye on it in the betting.
2—Colourbearer is my joint fourth top rated and likes to track the leaders but can be held and would need to get a good early position from stall eight from which to attack.
3—Bush Warrior is the other fourth joint top rated this one can be held up or track the leaders and from stall seven may need a degree of luck to get a good position all the way round.
4—Head Space is a hold up sort of horse but its final times at this course and distance have been quite slow so not in my top six and I would leave it out of my calculations.
5—Johnny Splash can either be held up or track the leaders but its best time doesn't put it in my top six but it is fairly well drawn in stall two but I'm not sure he can use it to its advantage.
6—Bouclier hasn't got any form over this course and distance but its form points to it wanting a longer trip and its breeding points in that direction as well so it may get outpaced here.
7—Whaleweight Station is the only known front runner in the field and is my third top rated so if it gets an uncontested lead it might be hard for most of these to catch it especially with Adam Kirby on board.
8—Picansort hasn't any recent form over this course and distance and also looks a better horse over the five furlong trip so will need to be held up to try and stay this distance but it maybe in vain.
9—Elusive Ellen another with no course and distance form and it may find this distance too short and therefore could get outpaced early on but should be staying at the finish if there's a good pace set from the front, if it turns into a two furlong dash it will most likely struggle.
10—Secret Witness is my sixth top rated but has been out of form lately and whether its held up or tracks the leaders I doubt it will be enough to win the race.
11—Spellmaker is my second top rated from a time in 2014 but hasn't been anywhere near equaling that in 2015 the best being over two lengths from its best which would make it sixth best and has been out of form as well lately so I'm not sure if it will be able to come back to the 2014 form ever again.
12—Major Muscori is my top rated and ideally may be better over a longer trip so should be staying on strongly at the finish and as long as the early pace isn't too fast it would most likely like to track the leaders but stall eleven doesn't help its cause but with a clear run ought to be thereabouts at the finish and showed its well being with three second places in its last three runs and the race two runs ago when second over this course and distance was only twelve spots slower that its best time.
SUMMARY: There is a few if's and but's in this race but I'm going to side with two of them, I'm hoping WHALEWEIGH STATION 8/1 from stall nine gets its own way in the front and sets a decent pace and then kicks for home off the bend to catch most of these out and the only one who could catch him then is MAJOR MUSCARI 6/1 who I know will be keeping on at the finish if granted a clear passage, so hopefully backing the two will show a nice profit from the race whichever one does the business.
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