Friday, 1 April 2016

3:00 Kempton Racing Tips (2nd April) BETFRED LOTTO HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-105)

1—Harry Hurricane is my third top rated from just the one race over this course and distance but hasnt had a race September so could need the run to gain fitness but it has won once before coming off a break so is capable of winning but would need to improve time wise to win this race but its only a four year old so could well improve so should have at least place claims if it runs to its best or does improve.

2—Hoofalong hasn't ever run at kempton before but has won on this surface at Chelmsford in a fast time so if taking to this track could be a big danger and although I always go with the proven I cant very easily dismiss this one from my idea of the winner. 

3—Lucky Beggar has never run on any all weather racecourse before and its form last season was poor so would need to shoot back to form to win this especially as it hasn't had a run since October last year but did win once on it first run of the season but I'm of the opinion it might prefer a slower surface to show its best. 

4—Mukaynis hasn't any form over this course and distance its also may need the run for fitness having been off the course October and hasn't won first time after a break before and it either finds this distance too far or it needs a slower surface, it has been known to lead before and it could try that here to blow away the cobwebs but the outside stall wont help if that's the plan. 

5—Dougan has been in good form over this winter with three wins and two second places from just the five runs one at this course over further which I think suits the horse more and may just be a little outpaced against some of these but will be staying on at the finish and could make the frame if others don't run to their absolute best. 

6—Yeeoow I thought this horse was on a downward curve as its now a seven year old but it ran well last time out over this course and distance when third beaten by two lengths and this time its weighted to take revenge with the second placed horse that day. 

7—Plucky Dip was the horse that finished ahead of Yeeoow last time out and was my selection that day but at the revised weights it may struggle to get the better of the selection this time and both of them can either be held up or track the leaders. 

8—Ticks The Boxes didn't have the best of form last year apart from one second place but it is a horse that likes to lead and has had one run this year where it was outpaced over five furlongs but it did lead all the way before when winning at this distance so might be the pace setter here and stall three is the nearest to the rails of any known front runner. 

SUMMARY: The race on proven times looks to be between YEEOOW 15/2 and Plucky Dip who finished third and second last time out and the selection is weighted to reverse the form here, there are a couple of hidden dangers in the shape of Hoofalong and Dougan who is the favourite, but I'm hoping I've got it right in Tick The Boxes leading from stall three and then the selection staying on strongly at the finish to gain the spoils.

Yeeoow 15/2 3rd 

No comments: