Wednesday, 16 November 2016

1:25 Newcastle Winning Racing Tips (17th Nov) BETWAY SPRINT HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95)

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Cornwallville no all-weather form, trip maybe too short but dropped in class-- Red Pike also no all weather form but possible front runner and also dropped in class-- Spring Fling has no form on this surface and could be a hidden danger-- Mullionheir has got poor form 2016 could set the pace not sure what its capable of-- Highland Acclaim versatile with its running style but 0-5 on allweather-- Lexington Times hasnt run on this surface before so no idea of its capabilities-- Sir Billy Wright is 2nd top using times from Wolverhampton but it was a 2015 time-- Distant Past is a hold up type and may just find this trip too far but I couldnt lay it just on that theory-- Mappin Time is top rated using Wolverhampton times from both last yeas and this years times so must have some sort of chance of winning this race-- Tatlisu has no all-weather form but looks most likely not to like this surface-- Spanish City is a hold up type who comes out a close 3rd best on course and distance times and its only a 3year old from one of the top stables that do well at this new course so could have improvement to come.– Johnny Cavagin is 3rd best on Wolverhampton times and a hold up type-- Dragon King is joint top rated on course and distance times but a possible front runner-- Jaywalker is the other joint top rated and is a versatile type when it comes to tactics.

SUMMARY: The top 6 in the race could all be dangerous, Mappin Time 12/1 is top on Wolverhampton times but has no form on this course and both Dragon King 9/1 and Jaywalker 8/1 the top rated pair on course and distance times have no form at Wolverhampton, Spanish City 6/4 could improve, so trying to compare them is a hard task. The betting has made it impossible to back them all to make a profit so the value bet is probably to back Mappin Time each way but maybe an even better idea would be to leave the race alone.
5:50 Chelmsford -
At first glance and seeing its a class 6 claimer I expected the worst and thought I would most likely be wasting my time but im hoping thats not so, Sophisticated Heir could be a hidden danger in this race as its got no form on this surface but other form says it might go well, the 3year old Zebs Fantasy is the only horse thats known as a front running type, it came over from Ireland and ran over this course and distance on its only run in England and ran poorly where it weakened and its best form in Ireland came over shorter trips so its not for me but if it leads and sets a slightly slower pace it will play into the hands of my selection, Zac Brown is my 3rd top rated and is usually a hold up type, I had joint top rated with Dominium who is being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice and DOCTOR PARKES 15/2 who has got a 7lb claiming apprentice riding which puts the latter 2lb clear of its rival plus Dominium's best time was recorded in 2015 and hasnt done as well since and the jockey has only a 3% win rate for the stable while the jockey on the selection has a 15% win rate and the stable also has a 22% win ratio in claimers which all points to me thinking the stable is expecting a big run from it in this race.

Doctor Parkes 15/2 2nd

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