Tuesday, 1 November 2016

1:55 Nottingham Winning Racing Tips (2nd Nov) LADY CECIL MORPHEUS HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110)

PLEASE PLEASE check the going before having a bet at Nottingham. On Monday, it was given as good to soft and good in places so I'm hoping it might have dried out enough to have a bet.
With just 8 runners this looks a nice little class 2 affair—Mobsta may need a softer surface and a shorter trip so if it's good or better, fingers crossed because I might be doing the whole blog for nothing unless it dries out a bit, it would be a lay-- Perfect Pastime is my 3rd top rated but a few pounds behind my top 2-- Maarek has only produced slow times so another lay if it's good or better ground-- Double Up is my 2nd top rated and can race prominently or be held up so must have place claims-- Demora is a potential pace setter but stall 1 might not be ideal but it is only a small field but its final times have been on the slow side—Humidor is a versatile type and that includes leading and there's not much else early pace and if getting to the front ought to be very hard to catch Justice good may need a longer trip and another possible lay.

SUMMARY: If the going is good or better I'm hoping the selection HUMIDOR 7/1 can either lead or be very close to the lead from the off and then repel all challengers but the jockey booking 1 win from 51 rides puts me off a little and stakes will be on the lower side because of it and I may have had a bet on Double Up as well because of the jockeys lack of wins for the yard but at 2/1 it doesn't represent any value.
2:30 Nottingham
Class 4 race with 11 runners in division 1 of the race—Wentworth Falls, Straightothepoint, Appleberry, Oeil de Tigre and possibly Storm Melody have all been marked as possible lays, New Side Road could be dangerous if allowed to dictate from the front but I doubt it in this race, Elusivity is 4th top just 1lb behind Grandad's World in 3rd spot who also could set the early pace, 3 lbs further up is Rosina a 3 year old that's my 2nd top rated and usually held up but top spot is the 3-year-old SILKEN SKIES 12/1 who can be held up or race prominently and from stall 9 it ought to be able to get a good early position from which to attack later in the race and to help its cause the stable are using, I assume, the trainers apprentice son to take another 7lbs off its back and it's a big enough price to bet each way.
3:00 Nottingham
This 2nd division is a few pounds lower than the other division on times, Swirral Edge is my 3rd top rated and Money Team my 2nd best and both like to track the leaders, my original top rated is BONDI BEACH BOY 10/1 who is 1 of 2 horses that have been known to lead in this race the other possible pace setter is DIAMOND LADY 10/1 and this 1 is my 4th top rated but it's being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice which moves it to joint top rated, so I think the race will be won from the front and my preference would be for the original top rated but the other 1 has got stall 9 which might help its cause, so I will have to go with backing both of them each way and make a profit whichever one does the business.
3:30 Nottingham
A large field of 17 in a lowly class 6 affair but just 4 that have been known to lead before, there's a couple of possible hidden dangers, which means stakes will be kept to the low side of things, it's a race where apprentices allowances alter the look of my list, Frangarry, and Ambitious Icarus start off as joint 2nd top rated and both usually like to track the leaders, John Joiner starts off as 5th best but take off the 5lbs apprentice's allowance and it moves to level top with my original top rated and is a possible pace setter but stall 3 might not be ideal, Bonjour Steve starts off in 4th spot but its 5lb allowance moves it to top spot by 1lb and this one is also drawn low in stall 5, neither apprentice is a positive or negative riding for their stables so I'm going to not add or subtract anything and go with the original top rated HORSFORTH 12/1 who can also lead and stall 12 might just give it the edge and the jockey have got a 17% win rate for the stable and I'm hoping it can get to the front and lead all the way and the price permits me to go with an each-way wager.

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