What a poor race, it is a class 6 af ut there's very little to work with in the race mainly because most of them are unreliable donkeys, of the 14 runners I've only got 5 with recordable times, Jebel Tara could lead if nothing else wants to but its time from here is only 3rd best and a few spots behind the other 2 so I'm doubtful it can lead here, Skadi has been known to lead but has no form on this surface, it has only had 5 runs but so far failed to even make the frame but this is such a poor race it could just be a hidden danger, Mr Conundrum is 3rd best on times from Wolverhampton with Commanche in 2nd top spot and this is the horse I think will attempt to lead all the way and if leading could be very hard to catch and to help its cause they are employing a 5lb claiming apprentice which would move it to top spot but only 1lb ahead of Wimboldsley this horse is also the top rated on course and distance times but this horse's trainer has sent 27 horses to this course without having a winner and the jockey booking doesn't look significant as he's had 4 wins from 89 rides, Edith Weston is 2nd top on course and distance times but comparing times on both courses this one would come out a few pounds below the selection.
SUMMARY: The top rated on my speed figures from both courses with this surface is Wimboldsley but when you take off the 5lb allowance the apprentice carries on COMMANCHE 5/1 this one moves 1lb ahead on times from Wolverhampton but the selection hasn't run at this course on the all weather before but if taking to it should have every chance of leading all the way. The trainers record with Wimboldsley doesn't inspire confidence, whilst the 5lb claiming apprentice being employed by the selection has been used by some very good stables but it is the 1st ride for this stable but it looks like they are expecting a big run.
Commanche 5/1 1st
6:20 Newcastle - (Division II)
This 2nd division is much worse than the 1st and that takes some doing, I've got 3 of the 13 runners marked down as possible pace setters, both Autumn Tonic and Amber Crystal could be potential dangers if getting an easy lead but that might not happen in this race, Major Muscari is my 2nd top rated using Wolverhampton times but top of those times is CANFORD BELLE 8/1 who is also the other possible pace setter and if this one does get to the front it could be very hard to catch for most if not all of its opponents, there is 3 horses with recorded times at this course and distance but only NEFETARI 16/1 has a time of any significance and it usually tracks the leaders and from stall it could be ideal in stall 11 as the one I think will lead is in stall 9, then the times from Wolverhampton this horse is way down in 4th top spot quite a way of the top rated but that was its only attempt at that tracks course and distance and being a 3year old could still improve, I can't really split this pair so will go with backing them both to show a profit, I would usually side with the one I think will need but in this case that ones best time comes from another course so not completely sure this course will suit but being a straight course I can't see why it shouldn't like it.
Nefetar 28/1 2nd
Canford Belle 8/1 3rd