Wednesday, 25 January 2017

6:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (25th Jan) BETWAY BEST ODDS GUARANTEED PLUS HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85)

racing tips, horse tips,
The only sprint of the day from 2 meetings for older horses and then just 7 runners, so no hope of an each way bet, things don't get any easier when analysing the race as from the 2 tracks that have this surface I've got conflicting figures.
PEARL SPECTRE hasn't any form on this surface but may need a longer trip to show its best or a very fast pace so the leaders are tiring, it has been known to lead itself but maybe won't be able to here, but is the top weight with a 5lb apprentice taking weight off, I couldn't quite get to laying this horse but I certainly couldn't back it.
CAPTAIN DION is another that could lead and is top rated on Wolverhampton times but only 3rd best on course and distance times but could improve on the latter as its only had the 1 run so has to have win and place chance here.
SALVATORE FURY has only produced relatively slow times at both Wolverhampton and here and I would be thinking about laying this horse if there's any value in doing so and with a small field it may happen.
BUCCANEERS VAULT hasn't any time from Wolverhampton but its time here is fast enough to put it in 2nd spot, it usually likes to track the leader but may struggle to do so in the make-up of this race but being a straight course does help its cause, I couldn't back or lay this horse.
LUIS VAZ DE TORRES has only shown slow times at both courses with this surface and it usually races prominently but I think it finds the 6th furlong pushing its stamina to its limits and to me it's a lay if prices permit.
MERDON CASTLE hasn't any form at this course and distance but does come out 2nd best on Wolverhampton times, it can also be held up or track the leaders and could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast.
DARK SIDE DREAM this one only comes in 3rd spot on Wolverhampton times but has done the best time here and is the 3rd horse that has been known to lead before but can also just track the leaders, its last 6 runs were in class 5 and I can see no reason for this step up in class.
SUMMARY - I think this race could be won from the front, of the 3 that have been known to lead before, Pearl Spectre might find the distance too short and not be fast enough to lead, Dark Side Dream may find itself slightly outclassed against these but could be prominent in the early stages but CAPTAIN DION 13/8 could lead and having the fastest time from Wolverhampton and 3rd best from here and looking at the trainer and jockeys statistics it very much points to connections expecting a big run in this race but what a lousy price, I do detest even tipping a favourite never mind one this short but times are times and I have to go with my top rating.

CAPTAIN DION 13/8 1ST

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