Wednesday, 22 February 2017

7:15 Kempton Racing Tips (22nd February) HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85)

Oriental Relation -- is versatile with what running tactics it deploys and its best time puts it in joint 4th place on my figures but the trainer is 0-20 here and the jockey 0-13 for the stable which doesn't fill me with confidence about its chances but could possibly make the frame.
Steelriver--at this distance usually likes to track the pace setters and then stay on strongly at the finish as though it wants a longer trip with 2 front runners it might or might not get the fast early pace its needs at this distance, it is my top rated but the trainer is 0-17 here and the jockey is 0-4.
Under Siege -- is one of two pace makers in the field but stall 9 isn't going to be ideal but it is my other 4th joint top rated horse and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch for a lot of these runners and the trainer has a 15% win rate and the jockey a 35% win rate for this trainer.
Plucky Dip -- comes out third best on my figures and can be held up or track the leaders but it does find this trip on the short side so will probably have to race prominently to have a chance of winning and the trainers has a 11% win rate and the jockey 13%.
Florencio -- has only a slow time over this course and distance but does well elsewhere with this surface so could do well if taking to the track and the trainer has a 21% win rate and the jockey is 3-6 for the stable so can't be discarded in terms of winning this race.
Excellent George -- will need to be held up to win at this distance as in a true run race it hasn't got the stamina to be competitive but it's got the coveted draw in stall 1 but probably won't be able to take advantage of it in this race.
Parkour -- hasn't any recent form at this course but did do a good time at Chelmsford and if capable of repeating that time here it must have a chance of doing well and the trainer does have a 21% win rate like its stablemate Florencio but the jockey only a 12% win rate.
Salvatore Fury -- has only produced comparatively slow times at this distance as it does much better over a shorter distance so will need to be held up to win this race and the jockey is 0-6 for this stable which is a negative in my eyes.
Major Crispies -- can be held up or track the pace setters but it hasn't got any recent course and distance form and its time at Chelmsford was a slow one but there's neither a negative or a positive with the trainers and jockeys statistics.
He's My Cracker -- is a possible front runner and isn't badly housed in stall 3 so could gain control of the rails from the start that's if it can because I'm thinking this horse would be better on a slower surface than the one it encounters here.
Vimy Ridge -- is well weighted and comes out second best on my time figures and it has made the frame recently so is in form and could easily make the frame here and it can be held up or track the leaders and stall 4 isn't too bad.
SUMMARY: A cracking little race with 11 runners and typically some of the speed figures are gained by horses that have been towed along with a fast early pace and just don't win very often and that is true on both of my top 2 ratings, then my 3rd top rated finds this distance too short and with maybe not a fast early pace it won't be able to stay on quickly enough nearing the finish, so I'm going with UNDER SIEGE 15/2 who from stall 9 could feasibly lead and if doing so prove very hard to beat and the danger looks to be FLORENCIO 15/2 who is using a good 5lb claiming apprentice to aid its chances to shine here but stakes will be kept on the low side with it being a very competitive race.

FLORENCIO 15/2 1ST
Under Seige 15/2 2nd

EX: £49.60

1 comment:

Robert Read said...

What a GENIUS you are Eric, fantastic insights to all the races you analyse.
Wouldn't touch a sprint until I got your thoughts.
Thanks for all your hard work and effort.
Rob.