Monday, 13 March 2017

2:25 Southwell Racing Tips (14th March) Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+)

This is a dire class 6 race, I can only write a summary because for most of the horses there's very little if anything to write about them, I do prefer when I have something to say about every horse but I can only write what there is and of course other days there's just too many runners or races to write up a summary of everything. Anyway for this race with 9 runners I've got negatives against 7 of them for one reason or another, the topweight Borough Boy is dropped in class so could be dangerous but it might need a longer trip but if these are poor in a ratio with itself it could be good enough but I'll stick with the proven, I've got 3 marked down as possible front runners but reasons against why 2 of them may not lead which leaves me with OSCAR'S JOURNEY 13/2 who is one of the front runners and it's been drawn in stall 9 so luckily this is a straight 5 furlongs so it won't matter as much as if there had been a bend to negotiate, I'm hoping it can get to the front and then lead all the way to victory.
Oscar's Journey 12/1 6th
3:05 Southwell -
VALLEY OF FIRE is dropped in class so could be dangerous if taking to this surface but the trainer is 0-13 here and the jockey 0-9 for the stable.

ESCALATING another dropped in class so another possible danger and the trainer has a 21% strike rate and the jockey 25% for this stable so cannot be easily discarded.

CAPTAIN LARS may be better over a shorter trip so not for me in this race.

BAHAMIAN DOLLAR hasn't any course form but either wants a shorter trip or a different surface or maybe even both.

SEPTEMBER ISSUE hasn't any course form but looks like a shorter trip suits it better but has got good trainer and jockey statistics.

AMONG ANGELS could possibly improve on what its shown here so far and needs to plus it's usually held up and may get there a bit too late.

BRING ON A SPINNER is my 2nd top rated on a time done this year and its 3lb claimer could move it to the top spot and the trainer has a 17% win rate and the jockey.

VROOM is the only known front runner in the field and being ridden by a 7lb claimer who has won twice from 5 rides for the stable which moves it from 3rd to top spot on my figures.

VALLARTA hasn't any recent course and distance form but even its best from 2015 wouldn't be good enough.

CROSSE FIRE looks a better horse over a shorter trip but has done a good time but looks to have been towed along in a fast run race.
SUMMARY: The top 2 in the handicap are both dropped in class so could be dangerous so any stakes will be kept on the low side of things, after taking off any jockeys claims Crosse Fire is in 3rd top spot but may not stay the trip if there's a fast early pace, Bring On A Spinner is moved to 2nd spot and could be staying on at the finish and has done its best time this year so its fit and in form but top spot goes to VROOM 8/1 who has got good trainer and jockey statistics and if getting an easy lead could prove very hard to catch and I can see it trying to lead all the way from stalls to the line.

Vroom 10/1 4th

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