Tuesday, 21 March 2017

5:00 Southwell Racing Tips (21st March) Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+)

Racing Tips - Eric Winner
BRING ON A SPINNER is my 2nd top rated and can either lead or track the leaders and stall 6 isn't too bad in the make-up of this race, the trainer has a 20% win rate and the jockey 17% win rate so it looks as though the connections are expecting a big run.
RED TOUCH hasn't any distance form and it looks to me as though this trip will be too short for it but the trainer does well here with a 21% win rate and the 3lb claiming apprentice wins 15% of the time but it's not for me in this race.
CROSSE FIRE my 3rd top rated changed its usual running style to lead all the way last time out over this course and distance and was very close to its best time over this trip but strictly on a form line its held by the topweight and if the early pace is really fast it may struggle to stay the trip.
AFRICAN BLESSING is my top rated from a time recorded last year and this 4 year old has only had 4 runs in its life and seeing it won and did its best time 1st time out for the year says it may not need this run for fitness but it's strange that it hasn't run since August so may have had problems but could also just as easily win here.
DARK PROFIT hasn't any form at this distance on this surface but did run a fastish time here over 7 furlongs and usually races prominently so could be a danger.
COISTE BODHAR has only recorded slow times at this course and distance as it seems to prefer a shorter trip and may also need this run to gain fitness like it has other years.
EBONY N IVORY hasn't any surface form and it's a front-running sort and its got the coveted draw in stall 1 so could try to lead all the way and has done well with some cut on turf so could go well on this surface and can't be dismissed from my calculations.
BIG AMIGO is usually a hold-up type but can run prominently and is my 4th top rated but is held by Crosse Fire and may struggle to win this race.
MERSHARDAL has no recent surface form bu its times from 2015 when running well here were all on the slow side and this surface may be against it in a fast run race.
BARON RUN hasn't shown any form worthwhile since 2014 in six runs and missed the whole of 2016 and I'm not sure if it's capable of coming back to anywhere near its old form.
SUMMARY: I think the two top rated horses could have this race between them but I have also got two marked down as possible hidden dangers so my stakes will be kept low, if BRING ON A SPINNER 7/1 can either get to the front or sit just behind the leader it could be hard to catch but if AFRICAN BLESSING 5/1 can reproduce its best from its 1st run of the year last year it would be the selection but I will have to go with backing them both to show a profit whichever one does its best.

Bring On Spinner 7/1 6th
African Blessing 5/1 7th

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