Monday, 20 March 2017

5:30 Kempton Racing Tips (20th March) Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+)

Racing Tips
ATHASSEL has won its last 3 races and the female jockey has ridden it to 2 of those wins but it might now be in the hands of the handicapper but it will be staying on at the finish and could easily make the frame and a horse in form is always a bonus.
NEZAR has only had 1 run here where it missed the kick and made no show at all but taking Chelmsford times, a course with the same surface, it comes out top rated and if taking to the course could improve on its last show but stall 10 isn't ideal.
PANTHER PATROL doesn't look as though this surface suits it very much and its best time from Chelmsford is quite slow, the jockey has ridden 12 times before for the stable without a win and I can't see any reason why it should alter in this race.
MUATADEL is from the stable of Ed Dunlop and owned by one of the big Arab owners so it's a bit strange to see it running here, it's still a maiden after 7 attempts and its one handicap run was in a class 5 race like this at Carlisle, it might need this run for fitness, it's not for me in this race but it could be a hidden danger as it has been known to lead before and is in stall 1.
HIGHER COURT'S trainer has only had 2 wins in her career so far and they have both been at this course, the jockey has ridden for her elsewhere without success but this is his 1st ride for her at this course, this one should be staying on strongly at the finish and with 4 possible known front runners it could be the fast pace this one needs to aim at to win a race.
BUSH WARRIOR hasn't done a good time at this course recently but has done a good time on this surface at Lingfield so if it can carry that form over to this course it could have some chance and it has got a top jockey riding who is 2-8 for this stable but its not for me until it shows it can handle this course as good as it can Lingfield but it has got stall 3 and for a possible front runner it's a good draw but I'm not sure it will be able to lead in this race.
K'GARI SPIRIT hasn't run on this surface at this distance before and all its runs on this surface have been over 5 furlongs but it did win last time out at Wolverhampton at this distance but it's times even over 5 furlongs have only been in mid range and would need to do more to win this race but never say never as it is in good form at the moment.
CLASSIC PURSUIT hasn't run since October and usually needs at least 1 run for fitness before it gets competitive and stall 11 isn't going to be ideal and I'm not looking for this horse to be involved at the finish but I may be interesting to see which jockey the stable uses in this race.
KING OF SWING is a horse that looks as though this surface doesn't suit it and its times over this course and distance have been on the slow side so I'm very doubtful if this horse will or can be involved in the finish.
MAJOR VALENTINE starts off as my 3rd top rated but with the 7lb claiming apprentice making his debut for the stable moves it into 2nd spot, its a possible front runner and stall 2 is plenty good enough if it's fast enough to gain control of the rails.
WANEEN has only recorded slow times at this course and distance and its times at Chelmsford are only slightly better and looks as though this distance is really a bit too far for it and I don't think this race will be run to suit it but the jockey booking is usually a positive but not enough for me to rate its chances.
INDIAN AFFAIR was the one that started off as my 2nd top rated but now relegated to 3rd spot it could have a chance of making the frame again but only managed to win once in 2016 but a few 3rd and 4th place finishes it's not a horse to back heavily and not for me in the search for the winner of this race.
SUMMARY: There are four possible pace setters in this race in stalls 1,2,3, and 6 and maybe the one to do best of these could be MAJOR VALENTINE 12/1 in stall 2 and if it does get to the front could prove hard to catch but my top rated HIGHER COURT 12/1 does need a fast pace to aim at as those ahead fade and this one stays on strongly at the finish but it may need a bit of luck to get a trouble free run from stall 5 but if managing to tuck in just behind the pace setters on the rails it could stay on to challenge late but I'm looking to back them both each way to cover both angles and show a profit whichever one gets the run of the race.

Major Valentine 12/1 1st
High Court 12/1 4th

No comments: