Sunday, 16 April 2017

3:20 Southwell Racing Tips (16th April) Davids Dash Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+)

Not an inspiring race for a class 5 affair with just 2 horses having gone fast enough to register on my figures, the trainer John Butler has 2 horses in the race and they are the only 2 known front-runners in the race and if they can dominate from the front and set a slow early pace they could pinch the race from the front as it won't take much winning but there are 4 other runners who like to race prominently so I doubt they will get an easy lead, the topweight Big Amigo is my 2nd top rated and it's being ridden by a 5lb claimer who hasn't ridden for the stable before but he is worth his claim and is usually a hold up type whilst my top rated ZYLAN 9/4 likes to race prominently and looks as though he could do ok over further so it should be staying on at the finish and hopefully for the win and the trainer is 2-9 at this course and the 7lb claiming apprentice jockey is 2-12 for the stable which are also pointers for them to be expecting a big run but I'm not happy with the price but it can help with a multiple bets.

Zylan 9/4 1st 3:55 Southwell -
FUJIN has been in form this year but its times have been quite a bit below its best from last year and the apprentice does ok with a 16% win rate for the stable.
PEA SHOOTER may find this trip too far and also may need its 1st run of the year and hasn't won from 8 attempts on the all-weather
BOY IN THE BAR hasn't been placed in 4 all-weather runs, may need this run for fitness and may prefer a faster surface.
CROSSE FIRE is my 3rd top rated even though it struggles to stay the trip if it's a fast early pace but could make the frame.
VROOM is my 2nd top rated and the trainer has a 20% win ratio and the jockey has ridden 43% winners for this stable so looks as though its fancied to win this.
BIG LACHIE could be a bit of a hidden danger but it also may need this 1st run of the year as it has done in other years
TREATY OF ROME is my 4th top rated and the trainer and jockey both have 15% win ratios so could make the frame here.
DARK FOREST has only recorded slow times at this course and distance but its got 17% win trainers stats and 36% win for the jockey riding for this stable so can't be discounted.
ENGLISH HERO hasn't any course form but hasn't made the frame in 3 all-weather runs, also may need this run for fitness and the trip is either too short or it could be a hidden danger and has 30% for the trainer and 36% for the jockey winning stats.
SUMMARY: Its, not an easy race to analyse to a conclusion but I have come to a decision, there's 2 or 3 that could be potential dangers so any stakes will be kept on the low side, Fujin is in form and has to be on everyone's shortlist after winning its last 2 starts but has got a big weight to carry here, my 2nd top rating but top rated on just this year's figures, VROOM 10/1 has to have every chance of repeating its last win, its a front-running type, the only known one in the race, plus its got stall 1 so I can see it going for an all the way win and the 7lb claiming apprentice has won 3 of 7 rides for the stable and at the price its big enough to go with an each-way wager.

Vroom 10/1 2nd

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