Tuesday, 11 April 2017

4:00 Lingfield Racing Tips (11th April) Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+)

Horse racing
ALKHOR doesn't make my top 4 timewise and usually needs at least its first run of the year for fitness so not for me in this race.
ORIENTAL RELATION hasn't any recent course form but is joint top using Kempton times and second best using Chelmsford times so could make the frame and a possible front runner.
GOLD FLASH may really need a bit further to show its true potential and the connections statistics are not making me put it on my possible winner list.
BORN TO FINISH is usually a hold-up type and comes out joint third top rated and then has a 5lb claiming apprentice riding and could make the frame.
PARKOUR usually likes to track the leaders but stall 12 isn't going to help its cause and timewise it's not in my top four.
VARSOVIAN is my other joint third top rated and then has a 3lb claimer riding but the jockey is 0-20 for the stable which puts me off and may prefer a longer trip to show its best.
SWISS CROSS is drawn in stall 11 and can be held up or track the pace and is my top rated on course times and the jockey has a 28% win ratio for the stable.
MELMAAR hasn't any recent course form and may need a longer distance to show it in its best light and usually races prominently without actually leading.
SALVATORE FURY will need to be held up in this race as it seems to prefer a shorter distance and its best time would make it only fifth best.
RED TYCOON the trainer is 0-14 and this course and the jockey 0-4 for the stable and is 0-5 on the all-weather so I doubt things will change this time out.
BALLESTEROS hasn't done a time fast enough to break into my top five and looks as though different surface suits it better so not for me.
BERTIE BLU BOY is well weighted compared to its best time but hasn't won since 2015 and I doubt it will change in this race despite it being a possible pacesetter.
SUMMARY: With fast starters in stalls 3,4 and 6 there could be some jostling for position near the rails but if pushed it could be the bottom weight from stall 3 that comes out best and is my second top rated but I'm not quite sure its class enough to stay on for the win but could do enough to make the frame, so it could then play into the hands of something drawn wider and a finishing type, Born To Finish is a real hold up type and should be staying on at the finish but may have a bit too much to do to catch the leaders but I'm hoping the selection SWISS CROSS can get some luck from stall 11 but if getting clear run its quite capable of catching them all and the positive booking of this 5lb claiming apprentice, Callum Sheppard, who has won on the horse before and has won 7 times from 25 rides for the stable and iI'mhoping its a good omen that connections are expecting a big run from their horse.

Swiss Cross 16/1 7th

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