I'll take this opportunity to remind people that I'm writing these blogs in advance and all my ratings are from when the going is good or firmer, I don't bet when there's any cut in the going and it can change after I've posted the blog so please make sure as much as possible the going is suitable before placing a bet.
The 1st division is dire and I certainly won't be betting in the race but in this 2nd division I've got just 1 horse with a fast enough time to be recorded and that's DISCLOSURE 16/1 and the stable is employing a 5lb claiming apprentice who has an 18% win rate for the stable so it looks like they are expecting a big run from their horse here, looking at its recent form, it ran well 3 runs ago when 5th but only one and a half lengths behind the winner when staying on at the finish, next time out it raced prominently and got lit up and faded into the last position then on its last run it completely missed the start and never got involved but a repeat of its run from Redcar last year could be enough to win this but there might be a couple of possibly hidden dangers and the consistency is poor at this level on the grass but I'm hoping for a decent price so I can go with a small each-way wager.
Disclosure 16/1 7th
5:30 Catterick -
This is an apprentices race and quite a bit better than the other 2 sprints here with Pearl Noir my 5th top rated and Noodles Blue Boy my 4th best both being known as front running types it should ba fast run race, my 3rd top rated is Cruise Tothelimit but the trainer is 0-5 here and he's also 0-3 in apprentice races which don't bode well for its chances, in 2nd spot is Kinloch Pride who won last time out at Newcastle on the all-weather surface which broke its duck but has had 17 runs on grass without winning but when a horse wins for the 1st time it can rejuvenate it but top rated is SEE VERMONT 7/1 who finished 2nd last time out behind Cruise Tothelimit at Wolverhampton but the selection is better rated on grass than that one so ought to reverse the form here and the trainer has a 3-24 win ratio in apprentice races but shows a £22 level stakes profit which is another positive in its favour but like all apprentice races the stakes have to be kept on the low side.
See Vermont 18/1 5th
5:45 Kempton -
Not a good race but I've got something to work with, there are 2 known front-runners, Swendab is in stall 4 but 6 furlongs stretches its stamina so will only lead if it's allowed to set a slow pace again but I'm hoping it will be taken on and even passed by RIGOLLETO 20/1 coming from stall 9 and this one is my 2nd top rated and at the price I'm going with a small each way bet as its only 1lb below my top rated NASRI 6/1, so I'm hoping the former leads and then if reproducing its best can only be caught by the latter which I'll back with a small win bet unless it drifts to an each-way price.
Rigolleto 20/1 4th
Nasri 6/1 Unp