Thursday, 6 April 2017

5:25 Southwell Racing Tips (6th April) Sprint Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+)

Of these 11 runners only the bottom 2 have ever been known as front runners, they are both well drawn in stalls 2 and 3, yet only the top 2 have done a time fast enough to register on my figures so Monsieur Jimmy is my 2nd top rated and this one has got both good trainer and jockey statistics which would hopefully point to connections expecting a big run from their horse and the top rated FORTINBRASS 7/1 has reasonably good trainer statistics and good jockey statistics using this 5lb claiming apprentice so it looks like this is another where connections are expecting the big run and if repeating its best has a few spots in hand even carrying topweight.

Fortinbrass 7/1 6th
8:45 Chelmsford -
A 9 runner class 4 race with 4 that have been known to lead before, Athassel has been running well but the handicapper seems to have caught up with it now but still comes out 3rd best on my course figures so it could still be competitive and make the frame, Vimy Ridge is my 2nd top rated but stall 9 isn't a good draw Lightning Charlie is the class horse and on first look it ought to be fancied but it usually needs at least one run for fitness and it hasn't raced since October 9th, my top rated is FUJIN 9/2 who is one of those known to lead and its got stall 2 so I'm hoping it can get out and gain control of the race on the rails and keep enough in reserve to repel any challenges late on.

Fujin 8/1 1st

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4:50 Southwell -

This is a class 6 claiming race and something I would very often ignore but I've done the worI'vend it looks like Vroom is the most likely pace setter here and starts off as my joint 3rd top rated but the 7lb claiming apprentice would move it into 2nd spot, Tick The Boxes is the other joint 3rd top rated but its got a 3lb claimer riding and takes it very close to my 2nd top rated Viva Verglas, my top rated is Harwoods Star who ran very poorly last time out but is the sort of springing back to form without warning and has a few spots in hand over the rest, on official ratings the one that comes out top is Dusky Dawn but I'm not sure if this distance is quite far enough for it. In summary, I would say I'm going to wait to see the betting and unless there's any value I will most likely leave the race alone PS..(seen the betting and I am going to leave the race alone).

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