Friday, 7 April 2017

7:15 Kempton Racing Tips (7th April) Fillies' Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+)

horse racing tips
CHILDESPLAY can either lead or track the leaders but the former only if allowed to set a slow pace and then kick from the front, its not ran over this distance much lately so it will probably need a fast pace so its stamina comes into play late on.

Nightingale Valley hasn't run on the all-weather before but may need this run for fitness as it's not run since September but also I think it may not find this surface to its liking.
Nags Wag is my top rated using this courses times and can be held up or track the leaders but will need some luck from stall 8 and the jockey's record is 1-30 which doesn't inspire confidence.
K''gari Spirit is usually held up in its races so I'm not sure if this race will be run to suit it and it only comes out 4th top on course figures from here in the last 15 months.
Monarch Maid has been known to lead before but is in stall 7 so not guaranteed it can get there and this is its 1st race since October and this one usually needs at least one run to get race fit.
Arize hasn't raced over this distance on this surface but I don't think the surface will suit it and also it looks as though it may need a longer trip to show its best.
Be Royale comes out 3rd top on course times despite this distance looking a little bit too short for it and the jockeys poor 1-23 win ratio isn't inspiring but it could stay on to make the frame if reproducing its previous best.
Assertive Agent won 2 runs ago and it's made the frame on all 3 starts this year and comes out 2nd best on course times from here, it can be held up or track the leaders but is stuck out widest of all in stall 9 so will need some luck in running but could make the frame.
Andasulite is still a maiden after 13 runs, I'm not even sure what its best distance is, as it tires if ridden prominently but runs on if held up but it only done a slow time at Chelmsford and may be outclassed here.
SUMMARY: This is a slightly hard race to analyse, Nags Wag is top on course times but has a poor jockey statistic against it, the race may not be run to suit the hold up types, a couple of runners need further and another couple look to want the race to gain fitness, so I'm going with a hunch of how the race may be run. The topweight CHILDESPLAY 11/4 has been running in both better class races but also over a longer trip and its 3 runs this year have all been over 7 furlongs, it has been known to lead before and the stable are employing a good 5lb claiming apprentice who is used by some very good trainers, Botti, Fanshawe, Appleby, so I'm hoping it can from stall 4 get to the front and take control on the rails, it's shown it can stay further so it can use that stamina to its advantage to get itself back into the winner's enclosure but I will admit I wasn't expecting it to be quite this short was thinking about 5/1 but it may drift, hopefully, but I won't be betting big stakes on the race.

Childsplay 11/4 3rd

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