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Tuesday, 8 August 2017

2:30 Leicester Racing Tips (8th Aug) Harrison Stickle Glued on at 25/1

It's Not Funny - 33/1
LEICESTER 2.30
HARRISON STICKLE 25/1 is 3rd top but the most likely leader from stall 2 so a danger if allowed to dictate and the jockey has 17% win rate for the stable so maybe worth an each way bet. MALLYMKUN 20/1 is 2nd top rated, can be held up or track the leaders and good trainer 1-7 + jockey 2-9 stats and is big enough to go with an each way wager SWANTON BLUE 8/1 is top with its 3lb claiming apprentice riding usually races prominently and in stall 4 and the price is just about big enough to bet each way.
SUMMARY: I can't really get it down to any less than my top 3 ratings but Mallymkun may need a bit of luck from stall 1 as it may get trapped against the rails if they all decide to run against them I will be looking to back all 3 each way to show a profit whichever one does the business.

Harrison Stickle 25/1 8th
Mallymkun 20/1 7th
NR: Swanton Blue CATTERICK 2.45
I backed SEE VERMONT 5/1 last time out where it was unlucky to get beaten and was given the race in the stewards room and it has a chance to follow up here, Rat Catcher is my 2nd top rated but the trainer is 0-14 here which doesn't bode well, Perfect Words is 3rd top and did its best time over course and distance which has to count for something but I will be going with just 1 bet on the selection but I will keep my stake slightly on the low side because of its poor draw in stall 12.

See Vermont 10/1 9th
NOTTINGHAM 6.35
This looks a 1 horse race to me, top of my figures with a few spots in hand, the only 1 in the race that has been known to lead before and if getting in control here should be able to lead all the way so DEALER'S CHOICE 9/2 is bigger priced than I thought but its still the selection.

Dealer's Choice 9/2 4th
CATTERICK 3.45
A poor race especially when GOADY 7/1 is my top rated but it did show its well being when 2nd last time out and 1 of only 2 in this race that have been known to lead before and hopefully can lead all the way here but stakes will be kept on the low side of things.

Goadby 12/1 9th
CHELMSFORD 8.50
See You Mush is my 3rd top rated and being a 3year old it could still improve, it's drawn in stall 3 and the way this race I made up it may struggle to get a good early position with 4 horses drawn wider potentially making for the rails and the stall 1 horse, Classic Flyer can also lead when needs be and I guess from its draw here it will be attempting to get control of the rails from the front but maybe not quick enough to do so on this surface, but if getting the run of the race could make the frame. BILLYOAKES 15/2 starts off as my 2nd top rated but the 5lb claiming apprentice, who has a 1-6 record for this stable which has a 14% win rate here with its older horses and its biggest problem could be the widest draw but there is potentially fast away horses in stalls 6, 9, 11 and 12, so it should be able to follow those across from the draw and get a good early position from which to attack later in the race. HUMOUR 25/1 comes out my top rated and is a potential front runner although stall 11 isn't ideal but time wise it might be able to get the better of the early battle and either lead or contend for the lead and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch for most of these but I'm not impressed by the poorish 6% win rate from the trainer here and even more so about the jockeys 0-9 record when riding for this stable but an each way bet may pay dividends.
SUMMARY: It's not the best race to try and predict with so many of the front running types getting relatively poor draws but if they all get out and cut across to the rails it might give those drawn high an advantage in this race and that's what my judgement is relying on in this instance with the selection BILLY OAKES getting a good position from which to attack and will be my main bet but just in case it doesn't get a clear run I will cover it with a bet on HUMOUR in case this one gets to the front and leads all the way but my stakes will be kept lower on this one because of the inferior trainer and jockey stats.

NR: Humour
Billyoakes 12/1 7th

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