Monday, 7 August 2017

3:00 Salisbury (7th August) Vincetti to Strike at 25/1

Horse racing
SALISBURY 3.00
Monteamiata is a 3-year-old who could be a potential danger and I know little about it but it's marked up as the 5/2 favourite which doesn't surprise me but it's not much value. Whitecrest 3rd top rated from a time recorded over this course and distance and this one like a fast early pace to aim at and it could just get that here. Wild Dancer is one of 2 potential pace setters and is 2nd top rated and a danger if allowed to dictate and could easily do enough to make the frame. VINCENTTI 25/1 is my top rated and usually likes to track the leaders and from stall 6 he can monitor what the others are doing and then stay on strongly at the finish to get back to winning ways and at the generous price available I will be going with an each way invstment if the going isn't on the soft side of things and a stick reading of 8.2 or higher would be ideal.

Vincentti 25/1 Unp RIPON 3.45
RED PIKE 11/1 may only be my 3rd best it looks the most likely pace setter in the race and with an uncontested lead it could be hard to catch for most of these. Art Collection is 2nd best and can be held up or track the leaders and could stay on at the finish to make the frame if getting a clear run which wont be easy where its drawn. JAYWALKER 14/1 is my top rated but what puts me off is the trainers 0-23 record at this course but the jockey has a 14% win rate for the stable.
SUMMARY: I will have to go with backing both horses each way to cover both angles, Red Pike could get an easy lead and be very dangerous and my top rated Jaywalker has conflicting stats with the poor trainers record but the reasonable record of the jockey for the stable so I will be having 2 bets in this race but my stakes wont be at full strength although the going might be just about ok, and again I will be looking for a stick reading of 8.2.

Jaywalker 14/1 3rd
Red Pike 11/1 4th WINDSOR 6.45
This is a very competitive race, Little Palaver is my 5th best and its trainer is also running Seeking River in the race who is my 3rd top rated, the bottom weighted 3-year-old Letmestopyouthere is 4th best but the jockey is 0-11 for the stable, ASHPAN SAM 11/1 is 2nd top and a possible pace setter in this race and if getting an easy lead it could prove very hard to catch but I've got CLEAR SPRING 7/2 as my top rated and this one only ran Friday evening at Newmarket and would be of interest if running again so quickly here but the trainer has a poor record at this course, so in this race I will be going with 2 small bets as long as the stick reading is at least 7.6.

NR: Clear Spring
Ashpan Sam 16/1 7th WINDSOR 8.15
Only 7 runners and I've got Hollander marked down as a possible hidden danger but it may need a longer trip to show its best, Zipedeedodah has been known to lead before but may not want the ground to be too firm, the 3-year-old Mercer is my 2nd top rated and usually races prominently while it top spot I've got JOHN JOINER 7/1 who is a versatile sort when it comes to its running style and that does include being known to lead and I think here it will either lead or at least contest the lead and then stay on too strongly for the others to catch it, the trainer has a 24% win rate here and the jockey has only ridden twice before for the stable and winning one of them, so both positive pointers to the connections expecting a big run in this race.

John Joiner 7/1 3rd


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