Sunday, 3 September 2017

2:30 Brighton Racing Tips (3rd September)

Related is my top rated but the trainer is 0-2 at this course and the jockey 0-8 for this stable which are negatives also it's booked to run on Friday and on paper this looks the easier option and I doubt it will run but if it does run carrying a 6lb penalty it drops to 2nd spot anyway.
Iseemist is my 2nd top rated and the good 5lb claiming apprentice is having his 1st ride for this stable but I don't see that as a negative especially when the trainer has a good 22% win ratio at this course and if the topweight runs under a penalty it becomes my top rated.
Dandy Flame is a 3year old who looks as though fast ground doesn't suit it which is the reason its times are not good, I would dismiss it from my idea of the winner if the going is good or faster and as usual I won't be betting at all if it's soft ground.
Buxted Dream is another 3year old and it has won its last 2 races on good to soft ground and that seems to be what it needs to show its best, it has run 2nd only beaten neck on good to firm ground but the time was slow showing it to be a slow run race and it still couldn't win, the trainer is one of the best in the country which always makes me wary as he usually knows what he's doing but it's not for me here but I'm hoping it makes the price of my selection bigger.
Upavon comes out 3rd best but the way it runs I always think it would be better over further and in this race, which I think will be run at a very fast pace if the going is good or firmer, I think may get outpaced early and its only hope if all the others stop quickly inside the final furlong but I doubt that will be the case.
Fujin hasn't won on turf for quite a while now and even then the time wasn't that good, it has run some decent races on all weather tracks but a winning record of 1-21 on turf puts paid to it being on my list as a potential winner here.
SUMMARY: With 5 of the 6 runners having been known to lead before this looks like a mad dash affair, I've got negatives against 4 of the field, even though the negative against Buxted Dream is tentative I will stick with the proven as usual, if Related runs on Friday and wins I doubt it will run here under a penalty but if it does I will go with backing ISEEMIST 11/1 instead but if Related doesn't win and then runs here then the selection won't actually be my top rated but the last time Related tried to run 2 days on the trot it ran poorly in its 2nd race so I can't see why an extra day will make the difference so I'm sticking with the 1 selection, hoping that the bookies make the Cumani favourite and I can find some value in my choice.

Iseemist 11/1 2nd (Rule 4)

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