Wednesday, 6 September 2017

4:10 Chepstow Racing Tips (6th September)

Eric Winner
ZIPEDEEDODAH has been known to lead before but it can also track the leaders but this one doesn't want the going to be too fast to show its best and not in my top 4.
BONJOUR STEVE is another one that doesn't want the going to be too fast and I also think it's better over a longer distance and if it's good to firm going I would look to lay it.
QUANTUM DOT is my 3rd top rated and a possible front runner but the stall 1 draw hasn't helped its cause with other possible pace makers in the race but the trainer does have a good 28% win ratio at this course and the jockey has won 13% of the stable's runners when he's ridden.
LUCKY CLOVER is my top rated here it usually like to track the pace setters and this potentially fast run race suits its style as it likes to stay on strongly at the finish when others are tiring.
JOHN JOINER is quite versatile when it comes to its running style and it comes out 4th best on my figures, stall 3 isn't ideal but it could make the frame if others falter.
BAHANGO is another known front runner but this one might like some cut in the ground and has been off for 5 months so may need this run for fitness so I would be looking to lay this one if there's any value in its price.
DAVIDS BEAUTY comes out 2nd best from a time recorded at Leicester Last year but has been about 10lbs below its best this year so far but the trainer is only 1-25 at this course and the jockey booking may look a positive move he's ridden 4 times before for the trainer without a winner.
PICC AND GO has had 3 runs to get a handicap mark and I doubt we have seen the best of this horse in those 3 runs but it may need further to show its best and its a 4-year-old so it may have had problems that have prevented it from running before now and I will take a watching brief.
KINGSTREET LADY has only produced slow times at this distance and looks as though further would suit it better it may also prefer some cut in the going so another I would lay, price permitting.
DIMINUTIVE is another that looks better with some cut in the going and another who only produces slow times so another possible lay but I doubt it will be a price worth laying at.
SUMMARY: I take this much effort with every race I analyse but I don't always have the time to go into such depth when writing up my blog, especially when there's several sprints on the same day so with just the 1 race for the day I thought I would show my workings for those who haven't seen it before to show how much effort it takes to come up with a profitable method of backing horses. I do all my own speed figure work firstly and then look at the trainer and jockey stats of those that could either be bets or lays and then comes the hard part. I always try to get a picture in my head of how a race might pan out, I take several scenarios and then go with the most likely but all my thoughts and plans are based on all the horses running to their usual tactics and any deviance can mess up all my plans and the going needs to be at least good going and good to firm would be even better, to help my cause of seeing how fast the going is I will be looking for a stick reading of at least 7.3 at this course. Then, of course, any non-runners could possibly affect my thinking especially if it's a front running type and what I write the evening before the race is my thoughts and how I will be betting in the race, whether you follow or not is up to you but my method isn't a get rich scheme but it has made a decent profit for nearly 4 years now. I think Bahango might be the horse to set the pace here to give itself a good workout after being off for 5-months to blow away any cobwebs and its the best drawn of the front runners in stall 9, another possible front runner is QUANTUM DOT 11/2 its drawn poorly in stall 1 but if it does get to the front or contest the lead it could be quite hard for the others to catch. Davids Beauty is my 2nd top rated but with both a poor trainers record here and the jockey never having won for the stable I will leave this one alone especially with 2 fast starters in the stall either side of it. LUCKY CLOVER 4/1 is my top rated and it usually likes to track the leader/s and in the make up of this race, it ought to be able to get a decent early position from which to stay on strongly at the finish. So I will go with backing the 2 selections to hopefully cover both angles with having a possible front runner and 1 that will be staying on at the finish but tilt my stakes in favour of the top rated Lucky Clover.

Quantum Dot 13/2 6th
NR: Lucky Clover

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