Wednesday, 13 September 2017

5:45 Kempton Racing Tips (13th September)

Eric Winner Racing Tips
KEMPTON 5.45
Dealers Choice-- a 3year old which hasn't run here before but it was a slow time recorded at Chelmsford on this surface, then recorded a fast time at Wolverhampton on the Tapeta surface and on good to firm at Carlisle, so not sure what to make of this one and it could be a potential danger.
Kings Academy-- a 3-year-old who has only recorded a slow time over this course and distance last year and usually likes to track the leaders.
Lord Cooper-- another 3-year-old who did its best time this year and can track the leaders or be held up but it's not in my top 3 ratings.
Major Crispies-- always looks as though a longer trip would suit it better, it only recorded a slow time here and its best on this surface from Lingfield wouldn't put it in my top 3 The Big Lad-- is a hold-up type of horse and can be competitive if there's a slow early pace which I doubt will happen here so I'm doubtful it can win the race.
DREAM FARR can be held up or track the leaders and its best time recorded this year puts it in 2nd top position, the trainer has a 14% win rate here and the jockey a 17% win rate for this stable so it looks a likely contender.
MISHAAL who I tipped up last time out and it got headed on the line in a photo finish, it is the only known front runner in this race and stall 4 may be plenty near enough the rail for it to get control of the rails and the pace and should be thereabouts again.
Picture Dealer-- can be held up or track the pace but its best time was recorded last year and hasn't shown as much so far this year even then its best from 2016 wouldn't put it in my top 3.
Red Gunner-- a 3year old who looks as though a longer distance would suit it better and also this surface may not bring out its best although it never runs on this surface.
YEEOOW-- is capable of winning when in the mood and its top rated from a time recorded in 2016 but hasn't reached that height so far this year but it is capable of springing back to form without warning so can't be easily dismissed.
Red Trooper-- is another in this race that looks as though a longer distance will suit it better and its times have been on the slow side of things so not for me here.
Spiritofedinburgh-- the final runner and 3year old in this race, it's a 10 runner maiden and also looks to want further to show its best.
SUMMARY: Once again MISHAAL 4/1 is the only known front runner in a race and with an easy lead it could prove hard to catch and has to be in my list of possible winners but is only my 3rd top rated, im not sure if this is a negative or positive but this is the trainer 1st runner in a claimer on the all-weather in at least 5years, DREAM FARR 5/1 is 2nd top and can track the pace or be held up for a late run but may need a degree of luck from stall 9 not to encounter some interference and the trainer is 2-24 with claimers on the all weather tracks, while YEEOOW 9/1 is top rated from a time recorded last year its one of those that if you ignore it sods law will come into play and makes you eat your words and stall 1could be helpful plus the trainer has a 7-22 win rate with his claimers on an artificial surface. I will go with backing all 3 to show a profit whichever one wins the race.

Mishaal 2nd
Yeeoow 4th
Dream Farr 8th

No comments: