Thursday, 7 September 2017

8:40 Chelmsford Racing Tip (7th September)

Winning Light
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NEWSTEAD ABBEY hasn't any form on this surface and distance but looks as though this surface isn't its favourite and looks a lay in my eyes.
ROYS DREAM is a 3-year-old 10 runner maiden, hasn't run on this course before but its time recorded at Lingfield wouldn't put it in my top 4 so will need to improve for the switch.
WELSH ROSE only a slow time recorded here in 2016 and its times on fast ground on turf haven't been fast enough so looks another possible lay to me.
SOARING SPIRITS despite looking as though a longer trip would suit it better it still comes out 3rd best on my figures, the trainer has a 16% win rate here which is a positive but the jockey is 0-31 with this stables older horses, so it makes the frame but maybe not win.
BILLYOAKES is only 4th best but the trainer has a 14% win ratio here and the jockey has a 29% win ratio for this stable, so it looks like they are expecting a big run here and is on my list as a possible winner.
QUITE A STORY is 0-6 on the all-weather tracks and its best time here doesn't make my top 4 so I'm doubting its chances of winning but wouldn't bet against it making the frame if others faltered.
DREAM START a 3year old but this one looks as though this surface may not suit it and it might be better over a longer trip and another to add to my lay list.
SOMETHING LUCKY hasn't run here but poor shows at Kempton and Lingfield make me think this isn't its best surface and the trip looks to stretch its stamina so a lay bet.
FIRESNAKE is rated just outside my top 4 but looks as though further would be better so ought to be staying on strongly at the finish and could possibly make the frame.
ENCAPSULATED did a time in 2016 which would make it 2nd top here but its time when winning here this year was a fair bit slower, it might have been the surface that day or a slow early pace so it could make the frame and could feasibly win the race.
NELLIES DANCER a 3year old who is a 10 run maiden who hasn't run on this surface but looks as though a longer trip would suit it better.
CLASSIC FLYER is a versatile type when it comes to racing tactics but has only produced slow times here and at Kempton making me think this surface is ideal but maybe not enough to make me want to actually lay the horse.
UPPER LAMBOURN hasn't run well recently and its best figures from earlier this year put it just outside my top 4 but could possibly make the frame if springing back to its best but its probably best left alone for both betting and laying.
LOUIS VEE is my top rated here and the jockey booking looks a positive despite it being their 1st ride for this stable but the only negative with this horse today is that its been off for nearly 10 weeks and usually needs a run for fitness but it is a known front runner and its got stall 1 which is ideal.
SUMMARY: I will go with having 3 each way bets in this race, LOUIS VEE 33/1 my top rated front runner drawn in stall one, ENCAPSULATED 25/1 my 2nd best who could get a good tow along from stall 2 and pounce if the selection fades due to needing the run and 3rdly BILLYOAKES 16/1 who has good trainer jockey stats which seem to indicate they are expecting a big run here.

NR: Billyoaks
Encapsulated 20/1 9th
Louis Vee 33/1 Unp

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