Monday, 6 November 2017

3:50 Kempton Racing Tips (6th November)

The Best Horses In Training
KEMPTON 3.50
Gulliver won in a fastish time on tapeta at Wolverhampton and a fast time on this surface at Lingfield but over 7 furlongs and despite having no speed figure it could be dangerous but isn't much value at 15/8 but it could be the winner so hard to know what to do.
Kasbah has recorded relatively slow times and not for me here and a lay to me as long as it's not a bigger price than the 10/1 it is now.
Pettochside hasn't any recent all-weather form and its old form might just about make it competitive to make the frame but I doubt it can win here (lay) 8/1.
Intransigent usually likes to track the leaders, it's my top rated and is being ridden here by a 7lb claiming apprentice which could help its cause (EW) 12/1.
Tropics is my 3rd top rated and has a positive jockey booking and could make the frame and possibly more if others falter. (Ew) 16/1.
Sir Ottoman has only poor English form but if reproducing some of its other form it could be a danger and I cant discard it altogether in this race but the price 25/1 makes it look as though its chances are limited and I will leave it alone.
Fast Track has only slowish c/d times then add on its poor trainer stat, 0-21 runs here, makes it look a possible lay in this race. (LAY) 9/1.
Parnassian is my 4th top rated and would need a few to run badly to win this race but it could make the frame but I'm doubting it will win (lay) but 12/1 isn't any value for the lay.
Vimy Ridge is my 2nd top rated and it could get a good run from stall 2 and I'm hoping it can at least make the frame here (Ew) 14/1.
Boy In The Bar has only shown poor form over this c/d, its time at Newcastle was a slow time but has good trainer stats and very good jockey stats which makes me think it might be fancied by connections for this race but at 6/1 I would look to back only for a place.
Jameerah hasn't shown much form this year, its time in 2016 was on the slow side but it did a fast time on this surface at Chelmsford so not sure what to expect but I'm not sure it can win, at the price my (lay) isn't of any value.
SUMMARY: Its not the best of races for a class 3 affair and there are no known front-runners in the race which always makes it a lot harder to analyse the race and get a picture of how the make-up of the race could affect each horse so stakes will be kept on the low side, I've picked out 5 possible lays which will depend on the betting (when I did all the groundwork for this I set an upper limit of 10/1 and only analysed the win part of any lay bets as it would have taken far too long to do win and place and it's hard to say which horses will or won't be pushed out when beaten so may or may not make the frame when they get the chance) I've also got 4 that I think might have a chance at least to make the frame what will depend on their prices but my selection is INTRANSIGENT 12/1 who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and looks the value call in the race, as usual at the price I will go with an each-way wager.

Intransigent 16/1 2nd

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