Friday, 10 November 2017

6:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (10th November)

Racing Tips
NEWCASTLE 6.45
Cashla Bay no aw form fast time good going turf possible danger(ew) 7/2
Tilly Trotter maybe too far but no distance form on Tapeta (Lay) 8/1
Veena 2nd top rated and good trainer/jockey stats (Ew) 5/1
Fruit Salad maybe too far but good stats (??) 6/1
Penny Pot Lane no course form, fast time at Wolver (EW) 9/1
Economic Crisis hold up type but this looks too far (Lay)
Nuns Walk well weighted but better elsewhere but top rated maybe not class(??)
French slow times and maybe surface doesn't suit it (LAY)
SUMMARY: A hard race to analyse with no known front runner, Nuns Walk is top rated but trainer has poor record here, 2-94 and it might be outclassed here, Veena is 2nd top rated and trainer has 19% win rate here, Cashla Bay could be a danger from a turf time and Fruit Salad looks as though this is too far but maybe not if its a slow early pace and it has very good trainer jockey stats but PENNY POT LANE 9/1 has a fast time from Wolverhampton which is the same surface, its never run here but if reproducing its best here it has a decent chance and the trainer has an 18% win rate here, stakes will be kept low.

Penny Pot Lane 9/1 4th NEWCASTLE 9.15
Quick Look may prefer another surface, jockey 0-26 (Lay) 9/2
Ballymore Castle not sure if its a positive or negative going/distance (--)
Samarmadi good trainer/jockey stats but not sure of surface (--)
Major Crispies not sure of surface, decent jockey stat (--)
Pomme De Terre may be better over shorter trip (LAY)
Start Time may be too short maybe wrong going (lay?) 9/1
Manatee Bay trainer only 1-22 but nd top rated (p) 50/1
Poppy In The Wind decent jockey stat 18% win, distance and going queries (lay)
Vallarta slowish times so may struggle here but jockey has 17% win rate (lay)
Cosmic Chatter has ok trainer/jockey stats and my top rated (EW) 16/1
Naples Bay may not like the surface on its aw debut (Lay)
Lucky Lodge 3rd top rated, tracks the pace (Ew) 28/1
Lady Of The Lamp only 4th best has good stats (EW) 7/4
SUMMARY: Manatee Bay 2nd top, Lucky Lodge 3rd top and Lady Of The Lamp all have at least a chance of making the frame here but top rated is Cosmic Chatter and I will go with backing COSMIC CHATTER 16/1 each way as it looks the value call in the race and then smaller covering bets on the other 3 to make a profit whichever one does the business.

Cosmic Chatter 16/1 3rd

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