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Monday, 7 April 2014

4:35 Southwell Racing Tip (8th April) BEST ODDS AT BOOKMAKERS.CO.UK CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo+)

4:35 Southwell - This is only a five runner class six claimer and it's not a great race - the biggest problem there's no guaranteed pace setter. I'm very dubious about backing a three year old against older horses at this time of the year even though it's getting twelve pounds from the top weight. My top rated is Spitfire. There's no betting up yet but maybe a small wager will show profits.

5:05 Southwell - Prince of Passion can track the leaders or lead itself. Dancing Freddy is either held up or tracks the leaders and is my fourth top rated but doubt it can win here as two of those rated above him are possible leaders. Art Dzeko is one that could lead or track the leaders - it's third on my figures. Waabel can deploy any type of tactics during a race but hasn't shown a liking for this course. Bubbly Bailey could try to lead or track the leaders and is drawn nearest to the inside rail of the potential leaders in stall two but I think it might prefer a faster surface. Meshardel may need this run to gain fitness and hasn't shown any form on the all weather to make me think it can win here but it is only a four year old so could improve as its only ever had eight races. Chappelerie has only recorded slow times at the course and I think it may want a longer distance to show its best and then I think it would need to be on a faster surface. Celestial Dawn can either track the leaders or even lead but doubt it's fast enough to lead against some of these as its times at the course have been slow and it has never won on the all weather from ten attempts. Doctor Hilary can either be held up or track the leaders and is second on my figures. Jemimaville has never won a race and has so far only shown poor form and it's now a seven year old so don't expect it improve dramatically.

SUMMARY: There's five possible pace setters but I think three of them are most likely not quick enough to lead so that leaves it to Art Dzeko and Prince Of passion to set the pace and they do come out first and third on my figures so doubt if it will play into the hands of a hold up type. I'm hoping the pace setters, which are drawn in stalls nine and ten, will get to the front and then move to their left to get a rails position and then PRINCE OF PASSION will prove the stronger near the finish, the best hold up type should be Doctor Hilary. The selection is available at 14/1 so I'm going to suggest an each way bet, hoping it will win but at the odds it maybe best to take out a bit of insurance with the each way bet.

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