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Thursday, 19 June 2014

6:45 Goodwood Racing Tips (20th June) TFN STAKES (Handicap) (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70)

Rigolleto has only produced slow times on the grass and may prefer a slower surface and may also prefer a longer trip on good or better going but could get an easy lead if it decides to try and set the pace as its the only horse in the field to try that tactic before. 

Pettochsideis a hold up horse but with its previous times i doubt it can catch the leader. Seek The Fair Land is either held up or tracks the early pace but it has poor form on grass. Bayleyf likes to track the pace but its not in my top five on times.

LUCKY DI 8/1 usually tracks the early pace and is my top rated and that figure was recorded at this course and distance, so a reproduction of that run would see it win here again the trainer Peter hedger has got a decent record at the course with eight winners from twenty runners plus the claiming jockey Charles Bishop has ridden three winners from eighteen rides on the trainers older horse.

Fossa can either track the pace or be held up and is my fourth top rated so needs others to under perform to have a chance of even a place. Ada Lovelace is my fifth top rated but its win last time out at Yarmouth was its best time yet and as a four year old it could have more improvement to come but it does have to improve again to win this race so I don't think its very good value at 5/2. 

Captain Kendall has poor form on grass and needs to improve dramatically to feature here. 

Gung Ho Jack likes to track the pace setters and comes out third top on my figures so should have place claims if it runs to its best. 

Chevise produced a time at Goodwood in August 2013 where it was third behind the selection Lucky Di and is only five pounds better off today for just over two lengths and it would make it my second best but its had races since then where it hasn't reproduced anywhere near its best and i would need to see some sign of a revival before I would be looking to bet it.

The Name Is Frank is my second top rated and can either be held up or track the pace so it could easily make the frame here. Pastoral Dancer hasn't got any form on grass and may find this trip too short so doubt it will show here.

SUMMARY: I'm going with my top rated LUCKY DI 8/1 maybe just about a big enough price to go each way the dangers being my second top rated The Name Is Frank and if it decided to spring back to form Chevise.

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