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Sunday, 8 June 2014

9:10 Pontefract (9th June) MIDSUMMER TEA PARTY ON 8TH JULY HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75)

Amenable won last time out at Southwell but that slower surface would suit the horse better than here. If the going is good or better (if its got soft in the going its no bets) this horse can either be held up or track the leaders. Boris Grigoriev may need the run after 263 days off plus this trip may be too short - so looks like its just out for a run. Haajes is my fourth top rated and is usually held up or tracks the pace. Mister Manannan has only produced slow times at the distance on good or better going and as a hold up horse I doubt it will catch the leaders. Holy Angel is another hold up type and also has only produced slow times. Adams Ale is either held up or tracks the leaders and is my second top rated so should have place claims but I'm surprised it's as low as 11/4. Emjayem can lead or track the leaders and could be an improving four year old and comes out third on my figures so could be hard to catch. CAPTAIN ROYALE 13/2 is my top rated and usually either tracks the pace setters or can be held up. Ypres is either held up or tracks the leaders and isn't in my top five so doubt it will feature here. The Strig may find this trip too short and its times say the same thing as it's not in my top six. it's usually held up over six furlongs but at five it's not usually fast enough to keep tabs with the early pace and then the line arrives too early. Boxing Shadows is my fifth top rated and can either lead or track the leaders but maybe not quite good enough to win here. Profile Star has only produced slow times but is quite capable of running in many different styles including leading. Chosen One has also only produced slow times but either leads or tracks the leaders but doubt it will good enough. 

SUMMARY: There are four horses known to lead so I expect a fairly fast early pace. I'm going with the top rated CAPTAIN ROYALE who was unlucky last time out when fourth but only because it was stuck on the wrong side of the course. The favourite, Adams Ale, was third behind the selection beaten two lengths but is only three pounds better off which isn't enough in my eyes to turn the form around. The selection is CAPTAIN ROYALE 13/2.


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