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Wednesday, 16 July 2014

3:05 Brighton Racing Tips (17th July) TM LEWIN HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-80)

Seven runners and Putin is the only one known to lead. This horse is better on the all weather.  My third top rated is Lionheart and I think its not really a sprinter and it would maybe better over further. Second top rated is Noverre To Go who did its best time at Goodwood so should like this course. Top rated ISEEMIST 11/4 favourite also did its best time at Goodwood and both of them like to track the early leaders but the selection is only a three year old so could improve again.

4:45 Hamilton - Pabusar is a hold up or track leaders type but may not be best on this type of course but is my fourth top rated but that was recorded at York a level type of course not undulating and uphill like here. MANDY LAYLA 9/4 favourite is one of the four horses that have led before and is my top rated. It's drawn in stall seven and if there is any advantage with just ten runners it is a high draw. Pull The Pin is another possible leader but is only sixth on my figures and it hasn't been at the top of its form lately but is a dangerous horse when it gets an easy lead but I doubt that will happen here. Fol Hollow can either be held up or track the leaders and is my third top rated but I think this race is a bit tougher than the last race it ran in and it didn't perform very well that day so doubt it can win here but it wouldn't surprise me if it ran well enough to perhaps make the frame but I wouldn't risk money on it. Chloes Dream is the third possible front runner but its times have not been good enough at the distance to attain my bottom mark. Rock Canyon is usually held up and comes out fourth on my figures so could make the frame if one of the top three fail to do their best but isn't worth betting at the odds. Stoneacre Oskar hasn't got any form at this distance and it could well prefer a longer trip and isn't in my top six. Busy Bimbo can either chase the leaders or be held up and comes out second best on my ratings so could make the frame and I'm surprised to see it available at 14/1 but I have to succeed that its not been in very good form lately and would have to spring back to form to feature. Ishetoo can be held up or track the pace but has two points against it: firstly I'm not sure if the fast going is what it needs and secondly I think it needs a longer trip. Wicked Wilma is the fourth possible front runner but I'm not completely sure it likes the fast going and isn't in my top six.

SUMMARY: With four possible front runners I expect it to be a fast run race especially when the third top and top rated horses are amongst them Pull The Pin has had easier opportunities lately and hasn't fired so there's no reason why it should suddenly spring back into form here. The selection MANDY LAYLA hasn't run for ninety-three days but it has dropped into class six here and I think it will prove too good for the rest and as a four year old could still have more improvement to come. I only ever tip my top rated and both of them today look quite decent bets but at the prices 9/4 + 11/4 we not going to get very rich unless both of them oblige and the odds are about 11/1 for the double.

ISEEMIST 1/1 4th
MANDY LAYLA 7/2 1st