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Friday, 18 July 2014

3:15 Newbury Racing Tip (19th July) AL BASTI EQUIWORLD HACKWOOD STAKES (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

A fourteen runner race and a Group three contest, there three horses that have been known to lead before, Music Master and That Is The Spirit are two of them but neither of them are in my top five so doubt they can stay there for the finish, the third likely leader is Heeraat who is my second top rated so should be hard to catch for most of the field but the top rated is ES QUE LOVE 14/1, just looking at its figures doesn't show that its been running in group ones and twos and I'm think the drop in class will suit and should have at least each way claims.

3:40 Newmarket - Ten runners in a class three handicap but most of the field havnt shown me that they are up to that level yet, the four bottom weights are all three year old so could be open to some improvement and Lady Horatio is the most likely pace maker and with an uncontested lead could be very dangerous and it is the early 4/1 favourite, my second top rated is Mar Mar who likes to race near the pace without actually leading so hopefully will make sure the favourite doesn't get an easy time in front, the top rated is ATHENIAN 13/2 and it quite a few spots ahead on my ratings, it hasn't run for 234 days but it did win its first race back in 2012 and only got beaten in a photo in 2013 so that gets rid of that obstacle, the other obstacle is that im not completely sure it really wants good to firm ground, its best time came at Goodwood on good ground and its never run on good to firm but if it handles the going it does have those spots in hand so i think its worth a wager at the odds but i wont be going in all guns blazing.

7:10 Lingfield - Twelve runners on grass but a lowly class six handicap race, ive only got three horses that have achieved my lowest qualifying rating, there's two known front runners, Hit The Lights and Commandingpresence who comes out third on my figures so should be hard for most of these to catch and should make the frame if running to its best, second top rated is Paradise Spectre who usually track the early pace makers, the top rated is the top weight NEW LEYF 7/1 it has been running in class four races five out of its last six races and the other race was a class five, so its now down to its lowest grade and its top weight doesn't stop it being my top rated so it should have every chance here to get back into the winners circle.

ES QUE LOVE 14/1 3rd
ATHENIAN 13/2 1st
NEW LEFY 7/1 Unp