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Thursday, 31 July 2014

3:40 Goodwood Racing Tips (1st August) BETFRED KING GEORGE STAKES (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)

A superb sixteen-runner Group 2 sprint over five furlongs and it isn't a race to go mad with the size of your bets. There are five horses in the race that have led before including Hamza, Brown Sugar & Hay Chewed but none them are in my top four rated. Fourth top rated is Take Cover who usually tracks the leaders. Third best rated is G Force, who also either likes to track the early pace or be held up. Second rated is Stepper Point, drawn in stall fifteen, who I think ran a bit below par last time out but is the fourth horse that has been known to lead, which also applies to top selection DEMORA 14/1. Drawn in stall seven, so it can decide which side to go depending on the early pace, it could be worth a small each way bet at the odds. 

7:50 Musselburgh - Nine runners in a class three handicap. Three known possible leaders: Daquonde, who isn't in my top six, Red Baron, who is my fourth top rated and Bispham Green, who is my third top. Imperial Legend prefers to track the pace and comes out second on my figures whilst the top rated JOFRANKA 6/1 also likes to sit just off the pace and it looks reasonably well weighted here so must have some kind of chance.

8:20 Musselburgh - Only seven runners so no each way bets. This is a poor class six race and only two horses have ever achieved a rating on my charts and they are also the two likely pacemakers. Little Eli is my second choice but the selection is MANDY LAYLA 5/2 who won last time out.

8:40 Bath - Back to another seven runner race and a class six contest. Baby Queen, Burnt Cream & Haadeeth have all been known to lead before. The latter is my second top rated, third top rated is Molly Jones, who can either track the pace or be held up. My top rated is Irish Boy 25/1 but it has shown a very poor level of form so far this season so I can't recommend backing it, especially with only two places. There is no value going with my second rating which is 5/2 favourite, so I'm leaving the race alone.

SUMMARY: Only a small each way bet in 3:40 Goodwood on DEMORA 14/1 as it's a very tough Group 2 sprint. 7:50 Musselburgh - I've got to go with the well weighted JOFRANKA 6/1 but keep to sensible stakes. 8:20 Musselburgh - I think MANDY LAYLA 5/2 ought to follow up here but it's not my sort of price but a winner is a winner. Bath 8.40 leave this race alone. The favourite Haadeeth 5/2 looks the safest option but if Irish Boy sprang back to life it could win quite easily on its old form. Too many ifs & buts for my liking.

DEMORA 16/1 Unp
JOFRANKO 6/1 6th

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