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Monday, 4 August 2014

7:45 Ripon (5th August) DAVID CHAPMAN MEMORIAL HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95)

Inxile is now nine years old so doubt it has got any improvement left but it did win last time out, surprisingly, at 20/1 - so obviously wasn't expected. Its time was eighteen pounds below its handicap mark and only fifth on my figures. Jamaican Bolt might be topical after the Commonwealth games sprint relay race but it's not in my top five and may prefer slower going. Silvanus likes to track the pace-setters but it's not in my top five so doubt it will be involved in the finish. Normal Equilibrium is usually held up or tracks the pace but its times don't put it in my top five. LONG AWAITED 10/1 hasn't won since August 2012 but has only had nine outings since then and a look at the results show it wasn't running that badly. It has won three times from just twenty-one races and two of those wins have come after a break. It has been off sixty-six days since its last run. It is trained by David Nicholls, who also has Inxile, with his son, Adrian, riding whilst the selection is ridden by Graham Gibbons, a more than competent jockey but I'm always wary of the chance of a fiddle. Megaleka comes out third on my figures but its last two wins have come in class five and six races so it might not have the class to take these on and win. Chooseday is either held up or tracks the pace but isn't in my top five ratings so doubt it will be good enough to win. Mutafaakir is a likely pace-setter and will possibly only have one other horse to battle with for the lead but this one doesn't rely on one style of racing. Captain Dunne is the other known possible leader but neither of them look fast enough to stay there to the finishing line. Adam's Ale is well weighted on one of its runs over course and distance but all its other times are at least twenty pounds lower so it would have be at its 100% best to win here but it looks unlikely. Oldjoesaid is also well weighted and comes out third on my figures at the weights but I think a class three race is maybe a bit too much for it and at ten-years-old isn't going to improve. SUMMARY: I'm quietly confident that LONG AWAITED 10/1 will be in the frame but nothing is ever certain in racing and Nicholls has two horses in the race, which can always leave things open to a fiddle. 


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