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Tuesday, 9 September 2014

3:00 Doncaster (10th September) Demora Top Ranked At 14/1

A Listed race with eleven runners. There are three horses that have led before but B Fifty Two and Swan Song don't appear in my top six. I have joint fourth top rated with Kingsgate Native and Reckless Abandon, who usually track the leaders, third top is Steps, but this one doesn't really want in genuinely good to firm, it prefers just good ground. Second top is Noble Storm who also likes to track the leaders but the top rated is DEMORA 14/1. The third possible front runner, if it does get to the front, could be very hard to beat. It won first time out and ran a decent race when fourth in a fast run race. It will be better suited to this Listed race after trying Group Two last time out and must have at least each way chance.


Eric's Race Analysis

I hope you all noticed the going today at Doncaster was given as good and good to soft in places, I didn't have a bet and with soft in the going and i hope you didn't either.

If you look at the recorded time of the 3:00 race today you would think the going wasn't soft at all because it says the time was 0.17 fast. I have said in some of my notes before about the Median times being wrong and this is a good example which shows what I mean. 

The Median time at Doncaster over 5 furlongs equates to a rating of 94 on my figures but some of these horses are rated over a 100. If i had done a full blog on this race I would have said the winner, Meccas Angel would prefer a slower surface, so it liked the bit of cut that WAS in the ground, so i cant use its figure to help prove my point, the second home was Reckless Abandon which is rated 113 but was carrying 9-11 and that equates to the horse running 14 pounds below its best. 

The cut is going to affect different horses to different levels but the third home, Steps and fourth home my selection Demora both ran 8 pounds lower than their best and when 2 fairly consistent horses run to the same mark its usually a good guide. What this shows is that the race was actually run 0.40 secs slow and not the 0.17 seconds fast which the official going is saying, proving how my times are more accurate and the total difference in times equals 0.57secs and is just over 3 1/2 lengths and in a sprint race that is quite a big difference.

I hope this has helped show how more accurate my figures actually are and my selections are sometimes bigger prices because the people who make the betting markets for the bookies use the "wrong" official times.

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